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Author: MikeSmithson

My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a tad more promising

My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a tad more promising

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Could he fit the bill for the blues after a GE2015 defeat? Just before Christmas last year, a couple of days after the Michael Crick film raising doubts about the whole Plebgate issue, I put a bit of money on Andrew Mitchell for next CON leader with Betfair at 70/1. The last week has seen the affair move forward dramatically in a way that can only help Mitchell. The narrative can only move his way more. He looks like the…

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The CON European leader is in UKIP’s sights

The CON European leader is in UKIP’s sights

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Henry G Manson on the battle in the North East Many expect UKIP to do well in next year’s European elections. The bookmakers have the purple party at 7/4 to get the most MEPs, with Labour the 4/5 favourite and Conservatives on 4/1. The purple party can look forward to plenty of media coverage and the recent conference embarrassments involving Godfrey Bloom don’t appear to have had much wider impact with their support. One symbolic moment of these particular European…

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Alistair Carmichael at 40-1 is a great bet for next LD leader

Alistair Carmichael at 40-1 is a great bet for next LD leader

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The bruiser who’s been brought in to out-smart Salmond The big surprise in last week’s re-shuffle was the sacking of Scottish Secretary, Michael Moore, and his replacement by the Lib Dem Chief Whip, Alistair Carmichael. Over the next 11 months Carmichael will have an increasingly high-profile role with all the focus on the Scottish referendum. The NO side needed someone who could handle SNP leader Alex Salmond which is why he’s been given the job My view is that Carmichael…

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CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI

CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI

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Amongst all giving a voting intention LAB was 5% ahead See chart pic.twitter.com/8GuTYRRqlH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2013 All leaders see satisfactions ratings boost In the Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings all see net increase. Ed now has better net figures than Dave See pic.twitter.com/pxJrTbav30 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2013 EdM sees net 34% uplift in Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings amongst LAB voters See chart pic.twitter.com/hvZFhFYIEJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2013 Ipsos-MORI finds that of all the new…

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What voters think would happen if the Tories won a majority

What voters think would happen if the Tories won a majority

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Eight years of decontamination have produced almost no serious change to the Tory brand http://t.co/FDqqmQ0KgA — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 17, 2013 What does this say about Dave’s decontamination project? Very interesting new YouGov polling out this morning for the Times on what voters think would be more or less likely to happen if the Tories won an overall majority. The views on immigration count against the Lib Dem while the view on tax cuts are helpful to them. Mike…

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LAB lead back to 5pc in YouGov daily tracker but overall the party’s share looks stable

LAB lead back to 5pc in YouGov daily tracker but overall the party’s share looks stable

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LAB YouGov/Sun daily poll lead back up to 5%. It was 1% yesterday LAB+1, 39% CON-3, 34% UKIP+1,11% LD-1, 9%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 After yesterday’s YouGov daily poll which saw the Tories at their highest level since the March 2012 budget things are back to “normal” this morning. Looking at the detailed data today’s poll shows a more balanced sample with less need to scale up those demographic segments which varied from the target. Generally outliers are more likely…

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The Deputy Speaker election is hard to call

The Deputy Speaker election is hard to call

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Ladbrokes Deputy Speaker 11/8 Laing 3/1 Streeter 4/1 Bellingham 5/1 Burns 8/1 Binley 20/1 Amess 33/1 Dorries pic.twitter.com/XvR30Ci4Zy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 I can’t get excited about the election of the new deputy speaker to replace Nigel Evans. Usually I like to bet based on some knowledge and detailed analysis. On this one, frankly, I don’t know. The favourite is Eleanor Laing who I met when she chaired a session I was speaking at at the CON conference in October 2009. I liked…

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