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Author: MikeSmithson

Labour’s Falkirk problems seem to be going over many voters` heads

Labour’s Falkirk problems seem to be going over many voters` heads

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Update: Labour lead at 5 – Latest YouGov/Sunday Times results 8th Nov – Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%; APP -30 http://t.co/rJa0Q63eSh — YouGov (@YouGov) November 10, 2013 Today’s YouGov poll sees no change for either the Dave or Ed in the weekly well/badly ratings which many wrongly describe as approval ratings. On the specific issue of Ed Miliband’s handling of Falkirk 19‰ say he is doing well while 36% say badly. The biggest grouping, are, however, the…

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Suddenly people are wondering whether Farage is losing it

Suddenly people are wondering whether Farage is losing it

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Maybe UKIP’s not a certainty to win most votes at EP2014 after all There’ve been several pieces today about Nigel Farage’s performance on Question Time last night held in what became a UKIP stronghold at the May local elections, Boston in Linconshire. It might just have been the audience or he was having an off night but he came over badly as seen in the clip above. Under the heading “Is Nigel Farage losing his touch?” Sebastian Payne on the…

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GE2015 could be decided by whether enough people have felt the benefit of this ‘economic recovery’

GE2015 could be decided by whether enough people have felt the benefit of this ‘economic recovery’

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Henry G Manson on Ed and Dave’s big gambles These last few months have witnessed David Cameron and Ed Miliband place a sizeable political wager against each other, with the keys to Downing Street at stake. The Conservative leader believes the economy will show positive signs of recovery by 2015 and enough indication that the government has made good on its promise to repair the economy. The Labour leader on the other hand is gambling that even with 6 more…

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At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously understimated LAB

At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously understimated LAB

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Those who “bought” LAB seats made a packet About once a month, it seems, like this morning I get called by a journalist who wants to know whether the general election betting prices reflect over-optimism by Tory supporters about their party’s projects. What had happened last time he asked? The theory we have heard so many times before: Those with the money to risk on the spread betting markets are probably richer and, “therefore”, Tory This prompted me to dig…

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Exactly 18 months to go before GE2015 a look at whether incumbent governments ALWAYS recover

Exactly 18 months to go before GE2015 a look at whether incumbent governments ALWAYS recover

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The evidence is mixed The above chart was compiled by taking the polling average closest to the 18 month point before election day. As can be seen the first opposition leader to break the rule was Mrs. Thatcher in 1979. Jim Callaghan’s government performed worse on election day than the polls 18 months beforehand – but then, of course, there was the “winter of discontent”. In 1983 Mrs. Thatcher saw the biggest variation on the polling average 18 months earlier…

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Peter the Punter on who the Republicans might choose to stop this happening – Hillary back in the Oval Office

Peter the Punter on who the Republicans might choose to stop this happening – Hillary back in the Oval Office

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Bill & Hillary in Oval Office 1998. Mike S behind Stephen Hawking Peter gives his assessments – Part 2 Last time around, the Republican [GOP] Nomination was a bean-feast for me, and for quite a few other gamblers here, I’m sure. The procedure was blissfully easy. You simply layed whoever was the latest clown to inspire the GOP base, safe in the knowledge that when push came to shove common -sense would prevail and the Party would revert to the…

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For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April

For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April

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Update: Labour lead at 6 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 5th November – Con 34%, Lab 40%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%; APP -26 http://t.co/yQ959vX9kf — YouGov (@YouGov) November 6, 2013 The last time that LAB had a run of more than three YouGov daily poll shares in the 40s was back in April before the local elections. So today’s third consecutive poll with the party in the 40s suggests that with this firm at least its position is stable. There…

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