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Author: MikeSmithson

The economy might be recovering but new poll by Populus finds that only 11pc feel part of it

The economy might be recovering but new poll by Populus finds that only 11pc feel part of it

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A feeling of economic well-being is surely central to GE2015 There’s a new survey out from Populus with a sample of 4,071 British adults, in which 44% said that the most important issue in determining their vote at GE2015 will be either the economy or the cost of living. Of those participating 38% leant towards agreeing that there is a national economic recovery underway, just 11% of the sample agreed they feel part of that recovery. Further, 38% thought there…

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Should voting intention polls be banned in final stages of GE campaigns: 30pc of MPs are in favour

Should voting intention polls be banned in final stages of GE campaigns: 30pc of MPs are in favour

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In the days of Twitter a ban isn’t going to work A new ComRes survey of 159 MPs reveals that 30% of MPs overall, including 35% of Labour MPs and one in four Tories (25%), would support a ban on the publication of opinion polls in the run-up to General Elections. The survey comes in the wake of the Indian Election Commission banning exit polls in the five states holding elections this month, plus a ban on any opinion polls…

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Warnings by industry on dangers of an EU exit might be having an impact

Warnings by industry on dangers of an EU exit might be having an impact

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STAY draws level with LEAVE in new YouGov EU referendum poll For the first time since January YouGov’s “how would you vote in an EU referendum” polling has not had LEAVE in the lead. The latest figures, broken down by party supported are in the chart above. These splits are what you’d expect. Opinion seems to have moved quite sharply since the summer. In May it was LEAVE 47% to STAY 30%. An element that might be having an impact…

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In the marginals the presumption must that the more marginal voters will vote

In the marginals the presumption must that the more marginal voters will vote

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Polling turnout filters might be deceptive It has become standard practice almost all polling firms to include a weighting for turn out particularly in the final stages of a campaign. Participants are asked to rate the chances of them voting on a scale of 1-10 and the results are used to scale up or scale down their voting intention responses. The most radical approach is taken by Ipsos-MORI which only includes the views of those 10/10 absolutely certain to vote…

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LAB take 8pc lead in the November ICM phone poll for the Guardian

LAB take 8pc lead in the November ICM phone poll for the Guardian

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ICM finds huge gender gap Among men LAB & CON tied on 32% each Amongst women LAB 45% CON 26%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 39% of those who voted LD at GE2010 tell ICM that now they are voting LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 In July the firm had CON & LAB level pegging Good Ed v Dave scores in ICM poll for Guardian just out http://t.co/Ax0GrjDkkn pic.twitter.com/Mo8tVSsS4U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 The…

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PaddyPower ‘s latest odds on the post GE2015 government

PaddyPower ‘s latest odds on the post GE2015 government

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Latest odds from PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T on the government after the next election pic.twitter.com/QKY6NtKrXz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 With another bookie I have another CON-LD coalition at 9/1 and I’ve got 12/1 that there’ll be another hung parliament but no coalition. In many ways I think that a LD-LAB coalition is less likely than a CON-LD one. I think that LAB would find it much harder to swallow going in with the yellows than Dave did in 2010. If…

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GE2015 could see UKIP winning more votes than the LDs yet not getting a single MP

GE2015 could see UKIP winning more votes than the LDs yet not getting a single MP

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The outcome could appear an abomination In the May 2013 local elections UKIP chalked up nearly twice as many votes as the Lib Dems yet won barely half the number of seats – a fact that attracted very little comment at the time. Given current polling and what is happening in local by-elections Farage’s party is not going away. It is continuing to poll in double figures even though only one pollster prompts for the party and several have weighting…

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Only problem with the Dimbleby tattoo bet is how you’ll prove that he’s done it

Only problem with the Dimbleby tattoo bet is how you’ll prove that he’s done it

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You can get 16/1 from Hills that Dimbleby will get tattooed this year See story http://t.co/dpCd2YpAMp pic.twitter.com/V5c6gytIO4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2013 Following DAVID DIMBLEBY's comments about tattoos William Hill offering that he'll do it 16/1 before end 2013 5/1 before end 2014 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2013 In a comment in the story Dimbleby says “The only person who will see my tattoo is the undertaker.” That’s all a bit morbid though Hills might accept an admission…

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