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Author: MikeSmithson

Dramatic council by-election boost for UKIP in Suffolk

Dramatic council by-election boost for UKIP in Suffolk

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Huge UKIP GAIN from CON at Haverhill East on St Edmundsbury DC UKIP 529 Lab 240 Con 157 LD 54 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 10, 2014 If this is the shape of things to come all the main parties are in trouble Vote share changes from 2011 in the Haverhill, Suffolk, district council by election UKIP 54% +54 LAB 24.5% -12.7 CON 16% -31.9 LD 5.5% -9.4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 10, 2014 The one qualification was that the turnout, at 18.5%, was very low. Even…

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Memory of the 2011 SNP surge – what’s keeping the YES hopes alive and worrying NO

Memory of the 2011 SNP surge – what’s keeping the YES hopes alive and worrying NO

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I’ve put this chart up before because it is so important in understanding the dynamics of the IndyRef campaign. For whenever YES is presented with a new poll they respond with what happened three years ago. And who can blame them? SLAB had built up big leads in just about all the Holyrood polls and the speculation was that the SNP would lose power that May and the red team would be back in with the possibility of an overall…

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If UKIP gets its act together in Wythenshawe and Sale East it can give Labour a run for its money

If UKIP gets its act together in Wythenshawe and Sale East it can give Labour a run for its money

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The result from Wythenshawe & Sale E at GE2010 Looks like a LAB hold on reduced turnout but could UKUP do something? pic.twitter.com/Sfkud1U3my — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2014 The purples can’t go on getting good 2nd places – they need MPs The sad and untimely death at the age of 60 of the popular former minister, Paul Goggins, creates what could be a tricky by-election defence for Labour and an opportunity for UKIP. For in spite of all the…

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People in receipt of state pensions have paid for it over the years – they are not on benefits

People in receipt of state pensions have paid for it over the years – they are not on benefits

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Chart from @ChrisGiles on how the welfare budget split State pension, surely, should not be regarded as a benefit pic.twitter.com/ex9R9d1gZz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2014 @GuidoFawkes @MSmithsonPB Er, its Osborne who talks about welfare which brigades the lot together. — John McTernan (@johnmcternan) January 8, 2014 It’s time the terminology was changed Eighteen months ago I started to receive my state pension after I’d deferred it for a year. Before this was granted there were checks that I had…

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The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010

The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010

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One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way. Thus in the latest poll the total of public sector workers was 1.167 which is greater than the samples for many of the national surveys that we see. This has been a big area of change as the chart above…

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Sometimes it can be the apparently trivial things that get traction

Sometimes it can be the apparently trivial things that get traction

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Daily Mirror front page http://t.co/QOUhLchpah — PolPics (@PolPics) January 7, 2014 The juxtaposition with Osborne’s cuts announcement is unfortunate The Daily Mirror, which seems to be more comfortable with itself now Labour’s in opposition, makes the news about the MBE to the man who cuts Cameron’s hair it’s main story. The danger for the PM is that this could resonate because it touches on what’s perhaps his biggest negative in terms of the he’s perceived, that he doesn’t relate “to…

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Tim Montgomerie agrees with Nick Clegg on where cuts should fall

Tim Montgomerie agrees with Nick Clegg on where cuts should fall

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First day back after the hols & more GE2015 battlegrounds emerge I agree with Nick Clegg. It would be unjust to balance budget on backs of lower income, working aged people. Hope Tories will clarify soon. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) January 6, 2014 Tory insiders say they'd be tougher on pension benefits if UKIP didn't exist. "We can't afford more core vote defections to Farage" I'm told — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) January 6, 2014 Meanwhile UKIP leap ahead of LAB…

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The reason why there’s all the confusion over Cameron’s comments on pensioner benefits is in this table

The reason why there’s all the confusion over Cameron’s comments on pensioner benefits is in this table

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Electorally the Tories can’t upset the oldies The above table was produced by Ipsos-MORI and published shortly after the GE2010. It shows the demographic breakdown of how Britain voted. The key numbers are for the older age groups – the pensioners. Not only were they the most likely to turnout they were the most Tory. If you are facing an election sixteen months time you have to think very carefully before doing anything negative to your key voting group. Increasing…

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