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Author: MikeSmithson

There’s nothing Farage could do about this this but Nick Griffin backing UKIP isn’t good news for the purples

There’s nothing Farage could do about this this but Nick Griffin backing UKIP isn’t good news for the purples

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Just what Farage didn't want. Ex-MEP & BNP leader, Nick Griffin, says he's now supporting UKIP http://t.co/EYq16a4jg9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Vote #UKIP to kick Cameron…but don't be fooled by Toryboy Nigel. pic.twitter.com/GRTLaUPJqi — Nick Griffin (@nickjgriffinbnp) November 28, 2014 Meanwhile Farage’s price in Thanet S continues to weaken PaddyPower http://t.co/49a6vU4VyB ease odds further on UKIP/Farage in Thanet South betting. Was 4/11 – now 5/6 pic.twitter.com/l0M0ZNIbzU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014

Key seats betting round-up and news of another constituency poll where UKIP doing well

Key seats betting round-up and news of another constituency poll where UKIP doing well

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Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam LAB 7/2 with PaddyPower http://t.co/49a6vU4VyB in Shef Hallam following @LordAshcroft poll with Clegg just 3% ahead pic.twitter.com/lcyKAVksCY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Farage’s Thanet South Punters still backing Farage in Thanet S in spite of @LordAshcroft poll showing him 5% behind pic.twitter.com/PnHO4wVh8U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Rochester: Can Mark Reckless repeat by-election success? Chart showing where the betting money is going for Rochester & Strood at GE15 pic.twitter.com/mjHZ3Sbs4C — Mike Smithson…

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There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

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pic.twitter.com/7g0LyKdhLo — PolPics (@PolPics) November 28, 2014 What current MP Tweeted yesterday “@FarageNo: @MSmithsonPB @LordAshcroft That's what happens when you don't visit the constituency in 3 months.” #desperatelyseekingNigel — Laura Sandys (@LauraSandysMP) November 27, 2014 At the PB party a week ago I was somewhat surprised at being told by at least two kippers that it wasn’t entirely certain that Nigel Farage was going to stand in the Thanet South constituency on May 7th. I, and apparently most punters, thought…

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Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggling in Sheffield Hallam

Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggling in Sheffield Hallam

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Main opposition party leader seat polling from @Lord Ashcroft pic.twitter.com/NtRm0hCnih — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 But elsewhere latest Ashcroft polls good for LDs LDs 9% lead over CON in latest batch @LordAshcroft LD held seat polls CON 27 LAB 13 LD 36 UKIP 17 GRN 5 pic.twitter.com/ZsXj9yTfFU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 Interesting in @LordAshcroft polls Lib Dems holding 9/11 seats where Tories 2nd. Suggests their spin on digging in not just puff — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) November 27, 2014 Seat-by-seat…

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The ComRes marginals’ poll would be a lot more valuable if there had been a 2 stage voting question

The ComRes marginals’ poll would be a lot more valuable if there had been a 2 stage voting question

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From last night the latest ComRes/ITV news poll of 40 CON-LAB marginals Con  31% (+1)    Lab 39% (-2) LD 7% (+1) UKIP 18% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 It’s important to tease out incumbency & tactical elements I was tied up last night when the ComRes/ITV online marginals poll was published as well as the latest YouGov which has the Tories back with a 1% lead. The ComRes poll with a sample of a thousand questioned online is in 40 seats where at…

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From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage, renationalising the railways and the death penalty

From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage, renationalising the railways and the death penalty

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Don't quite know what to make of this YouGov polling. How would Jesus view immigration & gay marriage? pic.twitter.com/OqnrugmJ9k — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2014 By 38%-6% the YouGov sample say Jesus would support the renationalisation of the railways. 49% said he'd oppose death penalty, 17% support — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2014 The polling’s certainly unique though I’m unsure about what it tells us

Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely

Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely

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No surprise there then but a big challenge for the coalition The chart is based on aggregate data for Populus polls last month and is broadly in line with what we seen from other pollsters. Those currently saying they’ll vote UKIP have the most negative views about the recovery. Given that both coalition partners will be trying to claim credit for what’s happened this message is going to be hard to get across to the biggest group of swing voters….

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