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Author: MikeSmithson

YouGov polling shows the very difficult challenge ahead for the Tories on the NHS

YouGov polling shows the very difficult challenge ahead for the Tories on the NHS

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Can the NHS be sidelined? The above chart is based on YouGov data for today’s Times and shows the different perceptions, broken down by party support, of what might happen to the NHS if the Tories win GE15. What I find interesting is the fairly similar range of responses in the chart between LAB and UKIP voters. The pattern is the same. In a sense this tells us nothing new. The real matter is whether Cameron/Osborne can sideline this as…

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There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

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This is NOT something that the blue team can rely on One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus. Some commentators have put this at as much as 3% and then sought to do seat calculations based on this applying to every CON defence. It is certainly true that first time…

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Lord Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster N poll – EdM NOT in danger from UKIP in Doncaster North

Lord Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster N poll – EdM NOT in danger from UKIP in Doncaster North

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How the correction and apology to Edm appears of @LordAshcroft site pic.twitter.com/vpduUXqvlE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 CORRECTED Doncaster N poll from @LordAshcroft CON 13 LAB 54 LD 4 UKIP 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 So even if CON tactically vote with UKIP in Doncaster N then EdM would have 18% lead. REVISED @LordAshcroft polll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 This post will be updated when this week’s Ashcroft national poll is published This week's @LordAshcroft…

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New report suggests that students could tip the balance of power at GE15 provided they register to vote

New report suggests that students could tip the balance of power at GE15 provided they register to vote

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@MSmithsonPB: Indy story that new rules http://t.co/qsTs7zzffQ on student registering to vote could cost Clegg seat pic.twitter.com/DJ6XQcswfu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 And that could mean trouble for Clegg in Sheffield Hallam Following the Lord Ashcroft Sheffield Hallam poll last week which had the LD leader with a lead of just 3% over LAB there’s a new analysis of student voting patterns by Oxford’s Stephen Fisher suggesting that Nick Clegg and other Lib Dems could be vulnerable in…

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Until we can get a clearer fix on LAB in Scotland GE15 is almost impossible to call

Until we can get a clearer fix on LAB in Scotland GE15 is almost impossible to call

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Why I’m not betting on LAB seat numbers By my reckoning LAB, based on the Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals, could be on target to make at least 50 gains or more from CON and the LDs at GE2015. More LAB possibles might come into the frame when Lord A has polled seats with CON majorities higher up target list. The big shadow hanging over the red team is that it currently has 41 seats in Scotland many of…

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The ongoing research into who the kippers actually are and whether they hurt LAB as much as CON

The ongoing research into who the kippers actually are and whether they hurt LAB as much as CON

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pic.twitter.com/w57vnDLzYt — PolPics (@PolPics) November 30, 2014 The evidence, surely, points to CON being most vulnerable On Tuesday night I was at one of my most favourite events – the annual awards dinner of the Political Studies Association where this year leading political scientists Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford won a top prize for their study of the rise of UKIP “Revolt on the Right”. This timely work has set off a lot of debate particularly the suggestion the Farage’s…

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