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Author: MikeSmithson

On current polling the Tories will, surely, suffer net losses of more than 18 seats

On current polling the Tories will, surely, suffer net losses of more than 18 seats

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Latest Commons seats spreads from Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR see LAB -1 CON +1. Just 4 MP gap now pic.twitter.com/arQHjH3eUU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2014 For the first time there’s overlap in the Commons seat spread betting The Tories have made more progress on the SportingIndex Commos seat spread markets and the buy level is 285 MPs. Given the polling showing number of CON held seats with majorities up to 7.8% seeing LAB leads, the threat from UKIP, and…

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The extraordinary impact of Lord Ashcroft’s two stage voting question – keeping LD hopes alive

The extraordinary impact of Lord Ashcroft’s two stage voting question – keeping LD hopes alive

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Why the party that’s lost ¾ of its vote isn’t panicking One of the remarkable features of the past four and a half years of the coalition is that the party that appears to have suffered so much, the Lib Dems, has not panicked and appears to just shrug off one miserable national poll rating after another. This morning’s YouGov once again has them in fifth place behind with just 7% drastically down on the 23.7% GB share at GE10….

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LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spread markets

LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spread markets

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Post Autumn Statement Commons seats spreads from Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR CON up 2/LAB & UKIP down pic.twitter.com/8h22hRhd9w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Punters think this’ll help the Tories The above prices were fixed this morning and have remained all day. Interesting that UKIP edges down a touch as well as LAB. This election remains a very difficult contest to call and it is hard to make a case to buy or sell at any of the above levels….

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The genius of George Osborne: His government’s failure on the deficit is being ignored

The genius of George Osborne: His government’s failure on the deficit is being ignored

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How the Sun is treating Osborne's AS pic.twitter.com/fFT6XjFA3e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Mirror front page on AS pic.twitter.com/eao43yavp1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Mail'sfront page on AS pic.twitter.com/SM3kMqAOvT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 FT front page on AS pic.twitter.com/i68pNH8r9c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 @Telegraph on the AS pic.twitter.com/qYLF1okpHM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Times front page on AS pic.twitter.com/Y3pwUY3G9u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Guardian front…

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If the Tories do manage to stay in power after May 7th much of the credit will go to George Osborne

If the Tories do manage to stay in power after May 7th much of the credit will go to George Osborne

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That won’t harm his leadership ambitions The autumn statement was always going to be a major event on the road to May 7th and George Osborne didn’t disappoint. So many different ideas and measures all designed to make it harder for Labour in the economic debate in the run up to the election and to block out the kippers. Although they were well-trailed the stamp duty changes look right for that “middle” audience which the Tories have to bring back…

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Osborne making his statement amidst declining confidence in the economy

Osborne making his statement amidst declining confidence in the economy

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The polling background to the Autumn Statement From YouGov: Voters much less confident about the economy than they were at March budget. pic.twitter.com/xpic7ULSYe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 Osborne's YouGov well/badly ratings down since budget but still voters rate him over Ed Balls pic.twitter.com/L5rrmZ91J7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014

On the morning of Osborne’s big speech the GE15 betting gets even tighter. Now almost level-pegging

On the morning of Osborne’s big speech the GE15 betting gets even tighter. Now almost level-pegging

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Most seats betting On the morning of Osbo's big speech CON gets tighter in GE most seats betting & now almost level with LAB pic.twitter.com/2J3w02gyqx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 Overall majority betting Best overall majority odds now just 1/2 in GE 15 outcome betting. LAB maj just has edge on CON pic.twitter.com/3BnVQ0lxcN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 But it’s Scotland not the economy that’s influencing the markets As we face the most uncertain general election…

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