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Author: MikeSmithson

Have you been on the weekend IndyRef betting roller coaster?

Have you been on the weekend IndyRef betting roller coaster?

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As can be seen from Betfair chart big fluctuations in #IndyRef YES price over w/e. Now 26.3% chance. Was 41%+ pic.twitter.com/IfPf0E3RlQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2014 Making money betting on the betting It’s been an extraordinary, and for some profitable, weekend on the Betfair IndyRef markets which have seen huge fluctuations in the YES price. What’s good from a punting point of view is that is is one of the few political betting markets which are now liquid…

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The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight’s poll while UKIP soar

The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight’s poll while UKIP soar

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The Yellows could be paying the price for Clegg’s debate gamble Just 19% of GE2010 LD voters tell ComRes IoS/S Mirror poll that they've a favourable view of Nick Clegg. 52% say unfavourable. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 12, 2014 ComRes: Cameron showed "serious lack of leadership over his handling of Maria Miller’s expenses" Agree 62% Disagree 15% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 12, 2014 ComRes/IoS S Mirror: My family is better off now than at the GE2010 Agree 20% Disagree 59%…

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Swingback is happening – how far will it go?

Swingback is happening – how far will it go?

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Crossover may be in sight but crossover isn’t enough for Dave The Omnishambles Budget of 2012 was perhaps Ed Miliband’s high point of the parliament. In that response, he set the political narrative for at least a Summer and put the government, and George Osborne in particular, right on the back foot. He introduced a readily reusable slogan and one which penetrated well into public consciousness. Unsurprisingly, translated into healthy opinion poll leads, reversing the brief bounce the Tories enjoyed…

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Labour needs to take 69 of these seats to secure a majority

Labour needs to take 69 of these seats to secure a majority

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The 106 seats @UKLabour has targeted in 2015: @marcusaroberts pic.twitter.com/ELuEw789jr — Election-data (@election_data) April 11, 2014 Your guide to the LAB targets Thanks to the compiler of the @election_data Twitter feed for this latest map showing where they key LAB targets are located. For details of the seats themselves check out the UKPollingReport LAB target list with the names of the seats, their ranking, which party is defending and the size of the majority. The seat that is on the…

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The jobs of one or more of Dave/Ed/Nigel/Nick could be on the line if the May 22nd elections don’t meet expectations

The jobs of one or more of Dave/Ed/Nigel/Nick could be on the line if the May 22nd elections don’t meet expectations

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This could be a very dangerous period for all 4 leaders On May 22nd there are the Euro Elections and as well, for 58% of voters nationwide, local elections. This will be the biggest electoral test before the May 7 2015 general election. The outcomes could impact on the futures of all four main party leaders. Parts of the Conservative party have never been reconciled to David Cameron and he’s still blamed in some quarters for failing to win a…

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Labour’s “crutch” remains: The 2010 LD-LAB switchers are still on board and their numbers aren’t diminishing

Labour’s “crutch” remains: The 2010 LD-LAB switchers are still on board and their numbers aren’t diminishing

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There hasn’t been much movement between CON & LAB The Populus aggregate data for March featured in the chart above sets out clearly that the big voter shift since 2010 hasn’t changed. Ed Miliband’s LAB is very reliant on those LD voters from last time who switched in the first year of the coalition staying on board. They make up such a big part of its current supporters base and represent a shift to LAB that is equal or greater…

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Cameron’s handling of the Maria Miller affair: Across the board voters were not impressed

Cameron’s handling of the Maria Miller affair: Across the board voters were not impressed

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The above poll, by ComRes for ITV News, was taken this afternoon after the news of Maria Miller’s resignation was announced and shows what voters thought of David Cameron’s handling of the expenses issue. The numbers speak for themselves. But with all such polling the question is whether and how it will impact on voting intentions. My guess is that it will help Farage’s party. Notice how UKIP voters are the most negative to the PM. Mike Smithson Ranked in…

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New culture secretary Sajid Javid now 33-1 for next CON leader

New culture secretary Sajid Javid now 33-1 for next CON leader

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Sajid Javid seems to get his breaks replacing CON women caught up in expenses rows. At GE2010 he took over Bromsgrove from Julie Kirkbride — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2014 The first of the CON 2010 intake into the cabinet What a morning and it’s quite hard keeping up with developments. There’s no doubt that ex-banker, Sajid Javid, is one of the most able CON MPs to be elected at GE2010 but the big surprise is the Cameron has…

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