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Author: MikeSmithson

Ipsos-MORI finds support for staying in the EU at its highest level since before the 1992 ERM crisis

Ipsos-MORI finds support for staying in the EU at its highest level since before the 1992 ERM crisis

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In an EU referendum would you vote to STAY or LEAVE – @IpsosMORI trend 1977 to May 2014 pic.twitter.com/P0DQFcL4di — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2014 Is opinion being influenced by the Scottish uncertainty? One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been carrying out political polling in the UK for longer than anyone and has extraordinary records. This means that it can put things into context. Ahead of next Thursday’s Euro election it has put out…

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The 25-1 on Danny Alexander being LD leader at GE 2015 is good value bet

The 25-1 on Danny Alexander being LD leader at GE 2015 is good value bet

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Clegg's going to stay LD leader but if not the PaddyPower http://t.co/MXDWhYTLh0 25/1 on Danny Alexander is good bet pic.twitter.com/8DurUMBgN1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2014 Clegg’s going to stay but if he doesn’t Alexander’s well positioned Just a week to go and lots of talk about whether all the party leaders will survive. For the Lib Dems I like the 25/1 that Paddy Power is offering on Danny Alexander to be leader at the election. He’s positioned himself…

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Polling analysis: Ukip is getting its best EP2014 shares from those firms that don’t prompt for the Greens

Polling analysis: Ukip is getting its best EP2014 shares from those firms that don’t prompt for the Greens

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Could this be inflating their purple shares? There’s a new ComRes online Euros poll out this morning. The figures show Ukip in its best position of any of the firms that have reported this week with a big margin over place LAB. But there’s a big difference between ComRes 10/10 certain to vote figures and those where its normal turnout weightings are applied. So of five firms to have reported this week three have Ukip in the lead, one has…

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Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know

Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know

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Also Ukip sees big increase in 2010 LAB switchers The chart shows the responses of those telling ICM in their last six polls that they voted Labour at GE2010 but have now switched to either “Dont know/Refused” or Ukip. As can be seen there has been a marked increase in switching to the purples but by far and away the biggest element has been the increase in 2010 LAB voters now saying they don’t know or simply refusing to given…

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Both LAB and Ukip drop 4% in latest Ipsos-MORI poll with the Greens jumping 5

Both LAB and Ukip drop 4% in latest Ipsos-MORI poll with the Greens jumping 5

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Farage sees his net satisfaction ratings down 7.5% @IpsosMORI chart showing change in its monthly leader ratings. Biggest net change -7.5% for Farage pic.twitter.com/bEdv8JFR3J — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2014 Given recent polls today’s May Political Monitor from Ipsos-MORI will come as something as a relief to Labour. They are down 4% but still in the lead. A more interesting change has been the 4% fall-back in Ukip’s Westminster voting share. This combined with declining ratings for Farage might…

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Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summer of 2010

Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summer of 2010

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Next poll up this week is Ipsos-MORI political monitor. Will it continue Labour's terrible polling week? pic.twitter.com/X3HcpFpNnQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2014 The red team’s terrible polling week continues When on Monday monrning the latest Populus poll came out showing LAB on 36% just a point ahead of the Tories it didn’t attract much attention. Since its big party ID weightings change in February the firm has been showing some of the worst LAB position and this just…

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Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections

Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections

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The closed list PR system has never worked for the red team The Westminster polling above is from May 1999 when Tony Blair’s New Labour was riding high and William Hague’s Tories were struggling to make an impact. At the time those sorts of 20%+ poll leads were common place and, as we all know, two years later New Labour went on to win a second huge landslide victory only a few seats down on 1997. Yet success in the…

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