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Author: MikeSmithson

The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

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Getting even a single MP might be beyond the purples There’s been lots of betting interest since EP14 and Newark over what UKIP will do at GE15. Will this be the election when the party that won the Euros actually gets it first MP or MPs? We’ve been over this many times but it is hard ask for Farage’s team to get enough votes in at least one of the 650 seats that puts them over the line. As we…

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The coalition parties make progress in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll: LAB & UKIP down

The coalition parties make progress in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll: LAB & UKIP down

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Things stabilising after EP14 & Newark The latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll has just been published and sees the two coalition partners gaining a bit while LAB/UKIP slip back. The effect is to reduce last week’s LAB 10% lead to 4%. Sounds dramatic but actually all changes are within the margin of error. For the LDs and Nick Clegg this poll will come as a huge relief. Last week’s 6% was the lowest for the yellows in a phone poll…

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After Newark CON must be pretty confident of holding Cambs South – the next by-election in the pipeline?

After Newark CON must be pretty confident of holding Cambs South – the next by-election in the pipeline?

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The contest that could be coming up to fill Lansley’s seat? In February I was the first to tip the ex-health secretary and now leader of the House, Andrew Lansley, as the next UK commissioner in Brussels. I got on at 16/1 and since the price tightened to him being an odds-on favourite. Now the bookies are not taking bets for it’s been informally announced that Lansley’s the man and he has even spoken publicly about it. The winnings I…

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Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

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It’s ex-Tories over 65s that have driven the surge Interesting analysis from @IpsosMORI on the source of UKIP voters by previous allegiance & age. 18% ex-CON 65+ pic.twitter.com/foOc1Jfk8T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 6, 2014 Eastleigh’s 27.8% still the best-ever UKIP Westminster performance Women voters: The big challenge facing Farage Attendees at this Farage/Helmer meeting last Saturday highlighted UKIP challenge. Very few women. pic.twitter.com/H6VaZb4OrR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 6, 2014 Mike Smithson

The other battle of Newark: Survation versus Lord Ashcroft polls

The other battle of Newark: Survation versus Lord Ashcroft polls

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Ashcroft has CON 22% ahead of LAB: Survation make it 9% There’ve been two Newark by-election polls both of which were started towards the end of last week. The findings can be seen in the chart above. As can be seen the two surveys have pretty similar shares the UKIP – 28% with Survation and 27% with Lord Ashcroft. Where the two diverge is with the LAB and CON shares. Survation has the Tories on 36% while Lord Ashcroft has…

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Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

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Watch Shadsy of Ladbrokes in this clip Not long to go now and the polling stations will be opening in Newark for a by-election that, whatever the outcome, will make history. Either the Tories break their terrible record of losing every by-election defence while in office over the past 25 years or UKIP break their ongoing losing sequence and actually win a seat. The only possible other outcome that could spoil this is Labour but from all accounts they have…

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Theresa May moves up 15 points and now clear leader in ConHome poll on next party leader

Theresa May moves up 15 points and now clear leader in ConHome poll on next party leader

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This is a big blow to Boris It’s hard to see why there’s been such movement in the ConHome regular survey of party members’ views on who should be Dave’s successor. Maybe the rise of UKIP is polarising views in many less connected segments. One thing that strikes me is that with all the focus on the May 22nd elections and their aftermath Boris hasn’t been making the headlines in the way that he was. Best price on Theresa is…

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Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

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Newark: The Buttermarket. pic.twitter.com/mfLSoyfP7y — Roger Helmer (@RogerHelmerMEP) June 2, 2014 Newark UKIP backers defy the polls Local punters are queueing up to back UKIP at 6/1 to surprise the pollsters to win Thursday’s Newark by-election, according to Ladbrokes. The bookies reported that they had failed to take a single bet on the Tories in the town’s betting shops on Tuesday. Despite that, the Tories remain odds-on favourites to retain the seat in what has become a clear two-horse race….

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