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Author: MikeSmithson

Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

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One thing’s for sure – NO is not a certainty There’s a new YouGov IndyRef poll out overnght which has, after the exclusion of the DKs, NO with a comfortable 20% lead. This is exactly in line with the average of YouGov IndyRef polls so far this year. This latest survey is in marked contrast to the Panelbase, Survation, and ICM polls of recent days which have all shown a narrowing of the gap. Above is a chart based on…

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The Tory hope that 2010 winners will get a first time incumbency bonus barely registers in the Ashcroft polling

The Tory hope that 2010 winners will get a first time incumbency bonus barely registers in the Ashcroft polling

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Lord Ashcroft May 2014 marginals polling Some MPs will get a bonus but the overall position is mixed One of the great hopes for the Tories is that those MPs who were first elected in 2010 will perform better than the national swing because of what’s become known as “first time incumbency bonus”. To try to test this in his battleground polling Lord Ashcroft asks a two-stage voting intention question. The first is the standard one while the second asks…

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This week’s Ashcroft phone poll sees LAB move to 6%

This week’s Ashcroft phone poll sees LAB move to 6%

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UKIP down 4 points in a fortnight The latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll has just been published and the numbers have a more familiar ring to them. UKIP is down from the dizzy heights of 19% that they chalked up in the immediate aftermath of their EP14 success. The LDs are up from the miserable 6% they were on at the end of May. But it’s the gap between LAB and CON that really matters and although the blues are…

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The worry for Nick Clegg is if moves like this in Nottingham gather momentum

The worry for Nick Clegg is if moves like this in Nottingham gather momentum

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The Nottingham Post story on the LD leadership http://t.co/kILKA2OtAH. See pic.twitter.com/Y5715iNlaT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 16, 2014 At the moment the pressure is very limited So far according to Lib Dem blogger, Stephen Tall, just five of the party’s branches have had formal meetings to discuss the leadership and only two, Nottingham and Ribble Valley, have voted in favour of a contest. The three others – Cambridge, Southwark and Salisbury – voted against. In Cambridge and Southwark the LDs currently…

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If Michael Gove is thinking of the leadership then he’s miles behind Boris in the latest ComRes Favourability Index

If Michael Gove is thinking of the leadership then he’s miles behind Boris in the latest ComRes Favourability Index

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And Farage sees the biggest negative change since April Of all the different forms of leadership questions the one I prefer is whether poll respondents have a favourable or unfavourable view of different figures. For while it’s possible to think that X is doing his/her job “badly” (YouGov) or the respondent is “dissatisfied” (Ipsos-MORI) you can still have a favourable view of them. That, I’d suggest, is more likely to be a better guide to voting intentions. So I applauded…

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Two new Scottish referendum polls have the gap getting closer

Two new Scottish referendum polls have the gap getting closer

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And ICM finds that the vote’s dividing 42% of Scottish families Two new referendum polls this weekend see the gap between YES and NO getting narrower. ICM for Scotland on Sunday has, after the exclusion of DKs, YES up 3 to 45% with NO down 3 to 55%. The Panelbase poll for YES Scotland, reported earlier, had a 4% gap. A feature of both polls is that women are becoming less hostile to the notion of independence. They are still…

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The guy who this week wagered £400k at 1 to 4 on an IndyRef NO might feel a tad nervous following new poll

The guy who this week wagered £400k at 1 to 4 on an IndyRef NO might feel a tad nervous following new poll

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Panelbase IndyRef poll for YES Scotland has the gap down to just 4 percent Three days after it was reported that a man in SW London backed an IndyRef NO with £400,000 at 1/4 there’s a new poll which has the gap at just 4% It was commissioned by Yes Scotland. The pollster is the Northumberland-based, Pabelbase, which in the past has produced the best figures for YES. Tonight’s poll is broadly in line with the recent Survation survey that…

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