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Author: MikeSmithson

To have any chance next May the Tories need to neutralise the NHS as an issue

To have any chance next May the Tories need to neutralise the NHS as an issue

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The latest YouGov issues tracker showing rising concerns about health pic.twitter.com/3TuSXsxOYS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2014 Look at the differences between the two tables I very much like the YouGov two stage approach to issues polling teasing out large differences between what’s important to the country and what is important to those questioned and their families. In my view the one that is electorally most important is the latter. People, I’d argue, think most first of themselves and their…

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If the Conservatives do lose power next May they’d be foolish to get rid of Cameron

If the Conservatives do lose power next May they’d be foolish to get rid of Cameron

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He’s the party’s biggest asset If things go the way of current polling then it is highly likely that within less then a year we could have three separate leadership contests. Farage has said he’ll stand down if his party fails to get an MP and it is hard to see Clegg being able to carry on if the election results in the disaster being predicted by the polls. But what about the Tories? From past experience we know that…

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Trying to explain why the Ashcroft National Poll appears to be so erratic

Trying to explain why the Ashcroft National Poll appears to be so erratic

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Turnout filtering might be the key At the excellent PB gathering in Ilkley last night the big topic of conversation was the extraordinary Ashcroft national poll which saw the 2% CON lead of last week become a 7% LAB one. At 4pm each Monday afternoon since the start of May Lord Ashcroft has been publishing his weekly national phone poll. This has been a great addition to the overall polling mix particularly because testing political opinion in this way has…

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Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point leads with both Populus and Lord Ashcroft

Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point leads with both Populus and Lord Ashcroft

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So was that the Junkers boost that was? Just a week ago the Ashcroft phone poll recorded a CON lead of 2%. Last Friday Populus had the Tories just 1% behind. Well things look very different today with two polls both having LAB with a margin of 7%. Generally whenever a poll produces figures that are out of the ordinary we wisely say wait to see if this shift is seen in other surveys. Well that’s certainly happened today and…

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Dave is beating Ed on leader ratings but on nothing like the scale of Major over Kinnock ahead of GE1992

Dave is beating Ed on leader ratings but on nothing like the scale of Major over Kinnock ahead of GE1992

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Cameron’s currently running just ahead of Kinnock One of the great hopes for the Tories as they face GE2015 with a deficit in the voting intention polls is what happened at GE1992. Then it will be recalled John Major was returned with a majority even though all the polls pointed to a hung parliament. At that election non-voting intention numbers like the leader satisfaction ratings were a better guide to the outcome. Could the same happen at GE2015? What is…

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Ex-UKIP leader chosen by Tories to fight the seat’s where Farage is said to be interested

Ex-UKIP leader chosen by Tories to fight the seat’s where Farage is said to be interested

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CON choose ex-UKIP leader to fight Thanet S Against Farage? My money's now going on LAB in this tight 3-way marginal pic.twitter.com/eG2CKD2MGQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2014 The tactical anti-UKIP vote could now go to LAB Latest Thanet S betting Ukip favourite pic.twitter.com/c2sFbpGDLQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2014

New TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll finds big fall in don’t knows but the overall picture remains

New TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll finds big fall in don’t knows but the overall picture remains

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Time is starting to run out for YES There’s a new TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll out this morning that has both YES and NO moving up with a fall in don’t knows. The pollster, like YouGov, has tended to show YES in a poorer position than some of the other firms and asks a slightly different voting intention question. Rather than the conventional “how would you vote tomorrow” TNS asks what people are planning to do on September 18th. The affect…

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