See how Betfair punters are confused So what will be the next government. The betting markets are confused – see this from Betfair Exchange pic.twitter.com/CusNgGw31M — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2014 I’ve gone on any other.
FT (£) http://t.co/z0pxB8dVw1 reporting that UKIP at war over Neil Hamilton's pursuit of a seat. pic.twitter.com/iGTleyplR3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2014 Whatever happens over Hamilton it will be wrong The former Conservative MP for Tatton who lost out to Martin Bell in 1997 has been much in the news of late as he has tried to be selected for a winnable seat for UKIP at GE15. The latest development, according to a report on the FT’s front page,…
CON seats up UKIP seat down in today's Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR Commons seats spread prices pic.twitter.com/LL0mEvf6fQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2014 Meanwhile the CON spread gets even closer to LAB I’m just on the train back from London after having a fascinating chat with the guy who runs the political spread markets at Sporting Index. This is the form of betting that I like the most because it is all about numbers and the more you are right the…
Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing how combined CON+LAB vote heading for record low pic.twitter.com/VsDS4VO3Tn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2014 It’s hard to work out the long term consequences The overriding theme of this week’s British Election Study conference was that things are changing quite dramatically and we really don’t know where this will end. Thus the certainty that existed about what will happen in Scotland in May has fallen apart in the past few weeks putting into serious doubt…
If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Ladbrokes betting http://t.co/ZlibygoyoN South Basildon where Mr. Hamilton is seeking to return to the Commons pic.twitter.com/hz5vJKHY6m — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2014
A case methinks of hearts over heads As a general rule political betting prices and polling tend to run in parallel particularly in the constituencies. So when earlier this month Lord Ashcroft published his latest round there was a rush of activity when apparently obvious bargain appeared. One such one was Nigel Farage’s Thanet South where following the numbers being available the UKIP price of 2/5 eased to 5/6. An earlier Ashcroft poll had had Farage with a 3% lead….
Theresa May up 4% in ConHome party members’ next leader survey The comment in the heading for this post was made to me at a recent social event by someone I regard as a leading Tory insider. It certainly has a ring of truth about it given that the two contenders currently being talked about are Theresa May and Sajid Javid, the culture Secretary. This conversation took place before the latest ConHome findings from its regular party member surveys. Theresa…