Browsed by
Author: MikeSmithson

The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

Comments 0 Comment

#IndyRef YES sinking fast on the Betfair exchange. Now down to a 13.5% chance pic.twitter.com/ip9HHJQePT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2014 The time for recovery is getting shorter The betting on the Scottish IndyRef has moved further to NO during the day even though, as yet, we have yet to see the first full post debate referendum poll. The latest price traded on Betfair as I write, (1420) was at the 7.4 level which converts to a 13.5% chance….

Read More Read More

Survation poll in 13 key CON held marginals finds CON to LAB swing of 9%

Survation poll in 13 key CON held marginals finds CON to LAB swing of 9%

Comments 0 Comment

New marginals poll by Survation for UNITE union finds 9% CON to LAB swing in key seats pic.twitter.com/q3s7B8pLpS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 If this actually happened EdM would win a comfortable majority Many of the seats in the poll were included within the recent phases of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling though his latest numbers suggest a move about one half of what Survation has found. A 9% swing is far better for Labour than any recent national…

Read More Read More

Boris playing a full part in the CON GE2015 campaign could help win back some of the kipper defectors

Boris playing a full part in the CON GE2015 campaign could help win back some of the kipper defectors

Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh slash the odds in Boris being next CON leader from 5/1 to 9/4. He's new favourite — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 YouGov polling from February on the Boris effect & UKIP supports. pic.twitter.com/RR1Be5fgXf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 The big Tory news today has been the announcement by Boris that he’s to seek a constituency to fight at GE2015 so he can return to the commons. Back in February YouGov carried out some polling…

Read More Read More

The Salmond-Darling encounter: Watch the full debate here

The Salmond-Darling encounter: Watch the full debate here

Comments 0 Comment

Given how difficult it was for those outside Scotland to watch last night here are three YouTube videos of the entire event. Part 2 is perhaps the sharpest. Tonight's #ScotDecides #indyref @icmresearch debate poll versus Survation's pre-debate expectations attached: pic.twitter.com/aIvZ32x3KP — Survation (@Survation) August 5, 2014

Remember when the Tories “won” England at GE2005: Ahead on the popular vote but 92 behind on seats

Remember when the Tories “won” England at GE2005: Ahead on the popular vote but 92 behind on seats

Comments 0 Comment

Labour’s other crutch: First past the post Britain’s leading political scientist, Professor John Curtice, has taken to describing the phenomenon of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers as Labour’s “crutch” for without this massive influx of support EdM’s party would be in a sorry state. I’d suggest that there’s another crutch that is equally if not more valuable – the way the electoral system works. Nothing, I think, better illustrates this than the GE2005 results for England’s 529 seats. The…

Read More Read More

Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a week from 14.2% chance to a 20% one

Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a week from 14.2% chance to a 20% one

Comments 0 Comment

1300 on TV #IndyRef debate day. Latest Betfair YES an 18.9% chance pic.twitter.com/QKUfbv86BY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 5, 2014 But can Salmond versus Darling change the fundamentals? Make no mistake – this is a massive day in the Scottish IndyRef Campaign. For tonight the First Minister of Scotland takes on the leader of “Better Together” the former UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, in a two hour long live TV debate. So far this is the only such debate that had…

Read More Read More

UKIP soar 4 points in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

UKIP soar 4 points in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

Comments 0 Comment

Populus Green total half that of Ashcroft After a period in which UKIP has been edging down across the polls there’ll be some relief at Farage Towers that today’s Lord Ashcroft poll has them at 18% – up 4 on a week ago. The chart shows the comparisons with the Populus online poll published earlier. The bigger picture is that another month has gone by and LAB is maintaining a lead albeit a small one. Twice since the Ashcroft poll…

Read More Read More