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Author: MikeSmithson

Lord Ashcroft tells the Tories that first time incumbency bonus is not a right – its something that has to be earned

Lord Ashcroft tells the Tories that first time incumbency bonus is not a right – its something that has to be earned

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Why things might be very different on May 7th next year One of the great hopes that the Tories have clung onto as their polling deficits continue is what’s known as “first time incumbency bonus” – the extra benefit that those MPs defending their seats for the first time have experienced in the past. The chart above shows the average increases in CON votes shares last time based on different categories of seat. As can be seen new candidates seeking…

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Henry G Manson on where LAB stands post confernence and his views on the leadership

Henry G Manson on where LAB stands post confernence and his views on the leadership

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“A couple of days ago, after Andy Burnham’s LAB conference speech I emailed Henry to get his views on whether Burnham could replace EdM before GE2015. This is his response” – Mike Smithson Hi Mike, there’s a few questions to address before we get to whether Andy Burnham will replace Ed Miliband before the election. First of all when would Ed go? It would have to be in the next month or not at all. The new leader really needs…

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LAB’s strategy in Heywood and Middleton is blindingly obvious: Talk up UKIP threat to get tactical anti-UKIP votes

LAB’s strategy in Heywood and Middleton is blindingly obvious: Talk up UKIP threat to get tactical anti-UKIP votes

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Result in Heywood and Middleton at GE 2010 pic.twitter.com/l8HQ2vq4SC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 24, 2014 And you know what? They’ll probably succeed Suddenly the Heywood and Middleton by-election two weeks from today is not looking like the foregone conclusion that it appeared when the vacancy was created following the death of the popular MP Jim Dobbin. In the past couple of days there have been are a wave of stories about the possibility of UKIP taking the hitherto rock…

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The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

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Survation find that one in two Scot would gibe it their vote Details have been published this afternoon of a Survation phone poll in Scotland carried out in the immediate aftermath of the referendum defeat. The figures are in the chart above and show shares which I believe have the SNP at a new high in any poll. Clearly the high profile and the hugely energised electorate have given the party a huge boost. The numbers are a timely reminder…

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The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

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The Mail on Sunday this morning Mail on Sunday asks if the YouGov 2% YES poll was a rogue & cost UK £45bn http://t.co/CQ393tPpzF pic.twitter.com/sYWq9Yqhk2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 YouGov’s Kellner responds War of words between developing Mail/S & YouGov's Kellner http://t.co/La4AQIJlkv over that YES 2% poll 2 wks ago pic.twitter.com/EVGeHaFsBq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 Some polling lessons for an EU referendum? Two things gave that 2% YES lead its greater potency: the advance hyping…

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Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford

Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford

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PaddyPower’s 5/2 is a great bet One election result from Friday that barely got reported was the selection by the Watford Lib Dems of Mayor Dorothy Thornhill as candidate for the general election. This is something that I had been anticipating and over the months and have built up what is my biggest GE2015 betting position on her with a best price of 11/2. Dorothy Thornhill is a remarkable figure in the town who on the disastrous May 2014 elections…

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The simple solution to the question of Scottish MPs: Do what was done in Northern Ireland in 1920

The simple solution to the question of Scottish MPs: Do what was done in Northern Ireland in 1920

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Look at how Northern Ireland’s numbers were changed Reduce the number of Scottish MPs I love the wonderfully simple solution to the Scottish MPs question by JohnO on the previous thread:- “We have been here before. Until 1972 the former Northern Ireland Parliament at Stormont enjoyed full devo max powers. What was the messy, rough and ready, probably anomalous but characteristically ‘British’ answer to compensate the rest of the country? Simple. Just make the NI constituencies at Westminster far larger…

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It’s hard to see anyone other than Nicola Sturgeon winning the SNP leadership

It’s hard to see anyone other than Nicola Sturgeon winning the SNP leadership

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Nicola Sturgeon 1/3 favourite with William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn to succeed Salmond as SNP keader. pic.twitter.com/S2LRjzaSlj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 After Alex Salmond’s not unexpected departure this afternoon following the YES defeat in the referendum the bookies have installed his depity, Nicola Sturgeon, as odds on favourite. Looking down the list of possibles from the bookies it is hard to see any alternative. But who knows? I thought that she had good referendum campaign and managed to avoid…

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