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Author: MikeSmithson

Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

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The leader renews his vows with the party & role as underdog The grassroots response to Ed Miliband’s recent leadership uncertainties showed more enthusiasm for his leadership than at any other time – including at the point of his election. While certain MPs were wobbling, the party’s foot soldiers and supporters were bashing out 60,000 tweets of support. Yes, Labour folk are suckers for an underdog, but this felt different. There were reasons why they backed him. The stance on…

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Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

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"@cgi247: Mark Reckless on the campaign trail in Rochester #UKIP pic.twitter.com/qUcjwth85k" — Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) November 4, 2014 The intro to voting questions in the Ashcroft poll As you may know, the Member of Parliament for Rochester & Strood, Mark Reckless, has announced that he is leaving the Conservative Party and joining the UK Independence Party (UKIP). He has therefore decided to resign as an MP and to fight the resulting by-election in Rochester & Strood as the UKIP candidate….

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Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leadership troubles Ipsos-MORI has worst poll for party since GE10

Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leadership troubles Ipsos-MORI has worst poll for party since GE10

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The Ipsos-MORI monthly poll has the worst figures for LAB of any since 2010 pic.twitter.com/JkrwKdTOhf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 EdM's net Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings 8% worse than Nick Clegg's pic.twitter.com/4z6AVFhety — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014

The “any other” government option on this new Betfair market is worth a punt

The “any other” government option on this new Betfair market is worth a punt

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Given huge uncertainty the "any other government/coalition" option seems the value bet on this new Betfair market pic.twitter.com/u36aucSQPx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 I’m betting on the final option on Betfair’s post GE2015 government market simply because of the massive uncertainty and how unlikely it is that either the red or blue teams will be able to govern on their own. To take one example which would make me a winner is the DUP contingent of MPs. There…

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Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next week’s by-election for UKIP but for CON to retake the seat next May

Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next week’s by-election for UKIP but for CON to retake the seat next May

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The GE15 finding will be a deterrent for other potential defectors The detail of the Ashcroft Rochester poll are jjust out and feature in the chart above. The 12% UKIP lead is very much in line with other recent Rochester polling from Survation and ComRes and unless there’s a sharp turnaround in the the next week Mark Reckless looks to set return to Westminster. But there’s a huge sting in the tale for Reckless. The sample was also asked how…

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Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

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LAB chances of overall majority at GE2015 fall to new low, a 23.2% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/CbSO0PuBgM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Tory chances of an overall majority at GE2015 fall to a new low, a 14.3% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/v2PkIlFbd1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Another hung parliament is looking even more likely The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON…

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The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets have LAB 18 seats ahead of CON but well short of a majority

The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets have LAB 18 seats ahead of CON but well short of a majority

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At last. The GE15 Commons seats spread betting opens with this from SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk pic.twitter.com/jgmIA7W0FX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Mid points on the SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk Commons seats spreads LAB 294 seats CON 276 LD 28 UKIP 9 SNP 21 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Now the betting can get really serious For me political betting is about the spreads where things like commons seats are traded like stocks and share and where the more you are right the more you…

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