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Author: MikeSmithson

Forget the 70s, new voters can’t even remember the 90s

Forget the 70s, new voters can’t even remember the 90s

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Henry G Manson on the events of the week We’ve seen a plenty column inches devoted to Ed Miliband wanting to take Britain back to the 1970s by committing to freeze energy prices for two years. The title of Dominic Sandbrook’s article in the Daily Mail, ‘Miliband’s Marxist father and the real reason he wants us to drag us back to the nightmare 70s’ has a full house in the bingo game seeminlgy played by right wing journalists. Well done…

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As Labour prepares for its conference today’s YouGov reports that the party’s lead has been wiped out

As Labour prepares for its conference today’s YouGov reports that the party’s lead has been wiped out

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For the second time in two months a major pollster reports that LAB and CON are level-pegging on 36% pic.twitter.com/e0p2mzUYcj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2013 Some numbers to dampen LAB spirits Whenever you get a poll that is out of the ordinary you have to treat the findings with some scepticism and today’s YouGov poll for the Sun is no exception. In July ICM also had both LAB and CON on 36% a that wasn’t supported by other…

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The Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader

The Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader

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Nick Clegg appealing to delegates at LD conference to back him on economy pic.twitter.com/ILLwDLrkgE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013 Clegg looks safe until GE2015 If there was going to be a threat to Nick Clegg’s leadership at the annual conference in Glasgow it was going to come in this morning’s debate on economic strategy. There was a very strong move to oppose official policy but in the end the votes went with the leadership. It was an easy…

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If UKIP supporters had answered this Populus online question in a certain way they could have boosted the “value” of their views by a factor of 13

If UKIP supporters had answered this Populus online question in a certain way they could have boosted the “value” of their views by a factor of 13

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Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with? Yesterday afternoon I was at a polling seminar at the LSE attended by leading academics, pollsters and those, like me, with a keen interest in measuring political opinion. The highlight for many attendees was the sharp…

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Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels

Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels

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Ipsos-MORI headline figures just those certain to vote Amongst all those sampled by LAB lead 10 See pic.twitter.com/ehp7Mthk3B — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2013 All 4 main party leaders slip, though EdM the worst, in Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings. See pic.twitter.com/AqALmRGVdw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2013 EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now at William Hague levels. See trend chart pic.twitter.com/imwaazQfcj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2013 In spite of this LAB still taking 31% of 2010 LDs Mike Smithson

CON and UKIP voters are becoming more supportive of missile attacks on Syria – LAB and LD ones more hostile

CON and UKIP voters are becoming more supportive of missile attacks on Syria – LAB and LD ones more hostile

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This is looking more partisan The above chart has been produced by taking the party splits on the Syrian missile issue and comparing them with the data from a week yesterday. As can be seen the net support/oppose numbers have overall moved more towards the latter. But both CON and UKIP voters have become more supportive of the proposal. The latter is in a manner that appears at odds with Farage’s high profile anti-position. Labour voters have moved sharply to…

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Ipsos-MORI party like-dislike ratings for UKIP raise doubts about the party’s future progress

Ipsos-MORI party like-dislike ratings for UKIP raise doubts about the party’s future progress

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How come that Farage’s party is now so disliked? One of the big problems with polling is that what tends to get reported is what fits the media narrative and other numbers can get ignored. Thus the big news from latest Ipsos-MORI “like/dislike” party and leader ratings was the big fall in Ed Miliband’s personal position which, of course, has been the big political story this summer. This has overshadowed other numbers from the firm about UKIP that might be…

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