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Author: MikeSmithson

New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

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New Survation/Unite poll in Stockton S has CON MP James Wharton holding on by 2% to one of the most marginal seats in the country — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 The split Survation/Unite Stockton S poll CON 39% (0), LAB 37% (-1), LD 3% (-12), UKIP 18% (+15) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 Survation Unite Stockton S poll NOT past voted weighted. 48. 2% of sample were 2010 CON voters when actual figure was 38.9% —…

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Rochester betting: Although UKIP looks a near certainty there are still some interesting markets

Rochester betting: Although UKIP looks a near certainty there are still some interesting markets

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Ladbrokes betting http://t.co/ZlibygoyoN Rochester turnout. 8/11 below 50%. Evens 50%+ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 William Hill betting http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz LDs 1/33 to lose deposit in Rochester. Seems a certainty even though price very tight. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR have interesting spread market on UKIP Rochester share. Sell 43% BUY 44.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 I like the SPIN spread market. If you think UKIP will secure more than 44.5%…

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Both Tories and UKIP go for the tactical vote in their final push in Rochester

Both Tories and UKIP go for the tactical vote in their final push in Rochester

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conservative @KellyTolhurst appeals to greens/lab/libs: "if you don't want a UKIP MP on Friday, I hope you can support me" #tactical #RSVote — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) November 18, 2014 Will by election voters want to stop UKIP or give Cameron a bloody nose? After a campaign that seems to have been going on forever we are now into the final day of the Rochester and Strood by-election effort. The polls and PBers in the prediction competition all go for UKIP…

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Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs down on 5%

Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs down on 5%

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New Opinium poll has CON in lead with the LDs down 4 to 5% Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2014 The above are voting intention details from the Opinium poll that featured on the previous thread. It is not part of the the Observer series and wasn’t intended for publication. Whatever at this stage so close to the election and only a couple of days away from…

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Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

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What we need now are Scottish constituency polls The second part of the Daily Record Survation poll of Scottish voters was published overnight and finds a big increase in SNP support since the IndyRef with an even bigger drop in the Labour share. It doesn’t really need to be said that the prospect of losing a significant part of its current base of 41 seats North of the border is going to make Labour’s challenge at the General Election that…

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