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The Republican front-runner is just 44 Joe Biden and his party came out of the Mid Terms better than most predicted and this has reinforced the suggestions that he will seek a second term at the 2024 presidential election. To retain control of the Senate three weeks ago with possibly an increased majority was a huge achievement for the Dems but his name was not on the ballot as it would be in a White House race primary. I simply…

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We have not looked at the above polling for quite some time and this is unique in that those sampled are not giving a list of issues from which they can choose. Instead they are asked to think of their main concerns completely unprompted. Arguably this gives a better picture. This is very dangerous territory for the government and it is probably one of the reasons why the Tories have been struggling so much in the voting intention polls. People…

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The best figures for LAB since Tony Blair I just love the way that the pollster Ipsos manages to dig up historical comparisons and gives us a framework for judging how the parties and individual politicians are doing at the moment. Ipsos, of course, has been polling since the 1970s and has a huge archive of historical polls. As can be seen the proportion of voters who think that the opposition is ready to form the next government is at…

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The reason why LAB appears to do so badly in terms of seats for what appears to be a very large vote share is that its support is far less spread over the country than the Tory vote. A significant part of the Labour vote is in seats with very big majorities and this means essentially those votes are wasted. The Tory vote is spread much more widely This is one of the reasons why I think Labour will struggle…

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Sunak cannot rely on the status quo We are starting to see a fair bit of polling like this where the issue of the UK’s relationship with the EU is the focus. . Last week YouGov had the number of people saying that Brexit was wrong reaching a new level with significantly about a fifth of leave voters taking that view. The above JL Partners poll in the FT looks at this in a different way but the overall picture…

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Where punters are risking their cash

One of the problems for the Tories of the current huge LAB lead in polls is that it is causing quite a number of sitting MPs to consider their future. They don’t want to get to election day in 2024 and suddenly find themselves out of a job. Over the last week or so 2 or 3 Tory MPs have announced that they will not be standing at the next general election and William Wragg, the member member for Hazelgrove…

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Inevitably Brexit will get blamed This is going to be a hard one for Sunak and his party to deal. For there is little doubt that for whatever reason the UK is not faring as well as other close economies in Europe. This comes at a time when Brexit is under greater scrutiny with a record number of people. according to the polling, who say it was wrong. At some stage you can see pressure mounting for a closer and…

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