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But expect a very low turnout Today’s by-election follows the resignation of incumbent MP Chris Matheson after accusations of sexual misconduct and a recommendation from the Independent Expert Panel that he be suspended from the Commons for four weeks. It hasn’t attracted very much attention because in the current context it is hard to see the Tories, who were second place at the last election, managing to come anywhere near. The LDs don’t put resources into fighting Labour held seats. Indeed there has hardly…

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The FT is reporting this morning that the EU has threatened Elon Musk with being banned in Europe unless the social media giant continues to follow its strict moderation rules. It is reporting that the threat came in a video call between Elon Musk and the EU official in charge of implementing the EU’s digital rules. One factor is that the California-based social media giant would have to agree to be subject to a yearly EU audit on a range…

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The LAB plan to end the charitable status and thus the VAT exemption on private schools has been around for some time though it has never been centre stage. That changed today at PMQs when Starmer started with the state money that Sunak’s old school, Winchester, receives. The party obviously thinks this is a good way to highlight Sunak’s privileged background which they must believe will help them electorally. No doubt there have been many focus groups This looks set…

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What about the first-time incumbency effect? The betting chart above on which party will win most seats at the next general election reflects the political history of the last 6 months. Most of the time until the early summer Boris Johnson looked as though he could lead the party to another victory. Then we had the difficult revelations about what happened at Number 10 Downing Street during the strict lockdowns. Johnson received a fine and so did Sunak something that…

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All three charts are from the latest Redfield & Wilson poll which was published yesterday. There are many, including me, who regard polling like this as more indicative of the current political mood in the country than voting intention surveys. Mike Smithson

There is nothing like an energy crisis with predicted soaring costs that cause politicians to look at alternative sources which in the past have been a opposed. It is my view one of the daftest decisions made by the Tories was to impose the effective ban on onshore wind in 2015. That is now being revisited and the party is divided into 2 camps – those who believe that they should continue to be opposed and those looking to expand…

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One of the things about American politics that looks very odd from a British perspective is that each of the 50 states can have very different election rules for what is the same national contest. So in the state of Georgia nobody can win an election unless they come out with 50% or more of the vote. This means that if no candidate achieves that threshold there has to be a runoff election 4 weeks later which is what is…

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The Tories are at 32% Inevitably given the way the polls have moved to LAB in the last couple of months that the party is now rated as a 67% betting chance to win most seats at the next general election In fact it was only in August that LAB went into the favourite slot in this betting market after the Tories have been up there since getting started in April 2020. I think it is far too early to…

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