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We have not discussed Trump for some time but he continues to be doing well in WH2024 nomination polling as well as the betting. I’m less convinced. I wonder whether he polls well because as an ex-President he has far higher name recognition but there are a lot of negatives. Although he’s getting old, 77 next birthday, he’s still younger than Biden who increasingly looks as though he intends to go for a second term. But there are a lot…

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A combination of the ongoing 20%+ LAB poll leads combined with what is happening in parliamentary and local government by-elections have continued to reinforce the betting market view about what will happen at the general election. The current 62% chance for an overall majority that Labour is rated is at is the highest it’s ever been and it looks as though it could go up further. All the talk now is of how difficult the Tories are going to find…

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I must say I cannot get at all excited about Labour by-election defences in northern seats which have been held by the party for as long as anyone can remember. There is almost never any interesting betting and it is hard to draw too many conclusions about the result outcomes except that the Tories are in as bad a position as we knew they were Unfortunately, the last few by-elections have all fitted into this category and have barely been…

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A huge problem for Sunak as he contemplates the way forward is that the previous two Tory leaders are still very active in the party and want to have an impact on the future Truss has now re-emerged with her own policy agenda in which she seeks to change the philosophical approach of the Tory Party. Johnson has made no secret of the fact that he wants his old job back and that he’s waiting for the opportunity to pounce….

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After his punchy State of the Union address this week the betting money has started to flow back onto Joe Biden to win the 2024 presidential election. His performance for that nationally televised event attracted very positive ratings and the polls found 70% and more saying he was doing well. I have been something of a Biden sceptic because of his age but I was impressed by his State of the Union performance and the way he dealt with the…

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Expect to see a lot more of the clip above in the next few months as both the Republicans and the Democrats gear up for the presidential election next year. I thought the Biden played this brilliantly and has managed to raise the spectre of parts of the Republican party wanting to undermine the limited social welfare systems that exist already in the United States. This has changed my view of Biden and believe that he will will find it…

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And Sturgeon gets worst numbers ever A Scotland-only poll is quite rare and we have a new one from Ipsos. The main leader ratings are featured in their charts above. I really do like the way that these days pollsters are working very hard at finding different ways of presenting their findings and that the above one is a case in point. While 43% of the public have a favourable opinion of Nicola Sturgeon, an identical proportion – 43% –…

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I quite like polling charts like the above one because it does break down a lot of the perceptions about the two leaders who dominate our politics. Some of the elements are clearly better for the incumbent Prime Minister like getting on with foreign leaders while others are bound to fit more comfortably his main opponent. The fact that Starmer leads by a little bit on most of the characteristics really reflects what we seeing the approval ratings. Is interesting…

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