So far we have no idea what is in the proposed Brexit deal but it clearly if successful could have a huge political impact. It requires all sides to make some concessions and if Sunak has managed to achieve that in a very complex and historical political situation then he should get accolades. I’ve quite like his style simply saying absolutely nothing but working all the time to try to find areas where each side, and that includes the EU,…
One of the problems that the former prime minister, Boris Johnson, has got it is that on current polling he could struggle to remain an MP after the next election. His Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency is being changed as a result of the new boundaries and looking at the numbers it is hard to see how he could have confidence about holding it. One of the suggestions being floated is that he might find another seat which would be…
Keir Starmer is seen most favourably, with 32% favourable and 39% unfavourable he achieves a Net score of -7. In comparison, the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is seen favourably by 27% of Britons while 46% disagree, giving a score of -19. Starmer’s numbers are unchanged from January but Rishi Sunak has seen falling scores (January: 30% favourable and 39% unfavourable). A similar number of the public are favourable towards Boris Johnson as Rishi Sunak (28% vs 27%). However, with…
r Reform UK move to 10% Above is this month’s poll of the 40 RedWall seats from R&W. In these seats 39 were taken by the Tories at GE2019 – the other one, Hartlepool, waa gained in a by-election. Perhaps the most ominous finding for the Tories is that Reform UK are on 10%. A real worry for Sunak’s party must be the ability of Reform UK to peel off a fair part of its vote in a general election….
Kate Forbes slumps to 12% The first couple of days in the SNP leadership betting has seen some very sharp changes as we see from the chart above. The biggest winner is Yousaf while Forbes drops to a 12% chance. Could it be that we soon end up with the leaders of both the Conservative Party nationally and the SNP being of Asian origin? Mike Smithson
Generally speaking we can partly explain poll shifts as being within the margin of error but not so with tonight’s R&W survey which came out this afternoon. As can be seen the Labour lead is up 6% on last week’s poll from the firm. Quite what has been driving this is hard to explain but these are the worst numbers from this pollster since Sunak became leader last October. This does not bode well for the Tories in the May…
This was her Tweet and video announcing her move. Mike Smithson
Did Nicola know the SNP position was built on sand? If ever there was an argument against the first past the post voting system then the outcome in Scotland at the last election makes a great case. The chart shows the proportion of the Scottish vote that each of the parties who won MPs had and compares it with the percentage of Scottish MPs that the party achieved. LAB’s 18.6% Scottish vote produced just 1.7% of the seats. The SNP…