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The voting polls have continued to be miserable for the Tories and we are not seeing any real sign of a change since the Windsor agreement last week. You can just feel the frustration from the Tory camp at the moment that apparently nothing they can do actually shifts the vote share polling numbers. In the leader ratings Sunak continues to trail Starmer and as to the best PM polling questions again the Tory leader finds himself in second place….

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This won’t help the Tories win LAB/LD switchers This polling shows quite a sharp divide between Tory voters and LAB/LD ones on what is increasingly becoming a big issue for the Tories as they try to turn the voting polls round. This might be a possible turnout driver for the Tories but that is about all. LAB and LD voters are much more opposed. I would also argue that this is just the sort of policy that could boost the…

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Could Uxbridge be the next by-election? The above betting market on whether there will be an Uxbridge by-election is just about the one place at the moment where you can take a punt on Boris Johnson’s political future. He of course is the sitting MP here. We are getting very close to the point where the Commons Privileges committee which is looking at some of the statements that Johnson made on lockdown issues it’s final report and recommendation. The committee…

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For the past few days I have been following closely this betting market to see if the big move on Northern Ireland by Sunak has had an impact on the way the next election is being perceived. As can be seen there has been a small move away from a LAB majority and this is in line with the two or three polls that have come out that have shown the Tories doing slightly better. Hopefully tonight we will see…

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In the next Conservative leader betting Boris Johnson has now slipped back from the favourite slot following the latest moves in relation to what has become known as partygate. This is being driven by two things:the revival of focus on Sue Gray following her appointment by Keir Starmer and the coming report by the Privileges Committee on whether Johnson did tell what could be an untruth to Commons over his actions during that difficult period. Today’s front pages show there…

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Today there has seen a lot of what appears to be confected outrage by many Conservatives over the decision by Keir Starmer to appoint Sue Gray as his chief of staff. It was Gray, the former senior civil servant who carried out the investigation following the reports of lockdown breaking by Boris Johnson. Whatever the merits of today’s attacks it does highlight a particular weakness on the part of the Tories in finding a way of undermining the Labour leadership….

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This is one of those times when I recall the advice of the Tory polling advisor Lord Hayward. He always took the view that we need to wait 2 weeks before coming to a conclusion about whether a particular event has had an impact on public opinion. On the face of it the Sunak government has had a very good week and no doubt he will be approaching things with a good deal more confidence. His big move on Northern…

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This is from the Wikipedia polling table for the weeks before his announcement on July 7th 2022. I think it is hard to assert that the Tories were only a “handful of points behind” but the party was doing better than it is at the moment. Mike Smithson