Browsed by
Author: Mike Smithson

Corbyn remains an electoral liability for LAB

Corbyn remains an electoral liability for LAB

The Tories know this very well which is why they always seek to attack Starmer by highlighting his role as part of Corbyn’s cabinet. The current leader’s action against his predecessor would seem to be absolutely right electorally. Corbyn was a total disaster for the party at GE2019 and the more Starmer can go on with these measures the harder it is for the Tories to attack. Corbyn’s leadership of the party was the main thrust of Johnson’s 2019 General…

Read More Read More

What will tomorrow do to Trump’s WH2024 hopes?

What will tomorrow do to Trump’s WH2024 hopes?

Tomorrow is a massive day in US politics when the former president goes on criminal trial in New York for actions in the WH2016 when it is alleged he paid Stormy Daniel to keep quiet about their relationship. He is the first former American president ever to go on criminal trial and undoubtedly what happens will divide the nation. That he could have been indicted is extraordinary and no doubt every effort will be made to ensure there won’t be…

Read More Read More

GE2019 CON voters much more likely to switch to LAB than vice versa

GE2019 CON voters much more likely to switch to LAB than vice versa

I really like this polling question which I have seen before but not for a long time. The format gives us a sense of the direction of travel and potential for tactical voting As can be seen the Tory vote from the last election is more likely to dissipate to other parties, particularly Labour, compared with when this question was asked of supporters of Starmer’s party. One of the the challenges for LAB at the moment is that they have…

Read More Read More

Biden moves to a 70% betting chance for the nomination

Biden moves to a 70% betting chance for the nomination

If he remains healthy the 80-year-old will get it I have generally been very skeptical of Biden’s chances of being the WH2024 nominee once again but he clearly wants it and the big question is whether his health will hold. Whatever this will be the big media focus and any hint of him not being up to it healthwise will come under a lot of media scrutiny. The polling finds most Democrat voters looking at him favourably but not wanting…

Read More Read More

Trump drops in the WH2024 betting

Trump drops in the WH2024 betting

This is from the New York Times: After a brief hiatus, The Trump Show is back. Americans, ready or not, are now along for another roller-coaster ride with a protagonist whose pre-eminence in the media universe had begun to fade.”..Banned from Twitter, Mr. Trump’s outbursts and grievances had stopped shaping the news cycle. Out of office, he became inherently less newsworthy. He even vanished from Fox News, his usual television home, for about four months beginning in November.”. Now Mr….

Read More Read More

Could Sunak’s Tories really win a fifth term?

Could Sunak’s Tories really win a fifth term?

The above podcast came out yesterday and the polling in it looks interesting and should be of some concern to Labour particularly the comments in relation to Starmer. Already the blue attack machine is trying to get its teeth into him. Remember that the way the Tories win general elections is by attacking and undermining the LAB leader. Just ask EdM. Last time this was easier because of Corbyn. One thing that should be noted is that Labour needs to…

Read More Read More

Compare and contrast UK pension policy with what is happening in France

Compare and contrast UK pension policy with what is happening in France

Over the past few weeks we have seen extraordinary TV pictures from France of the demonstrations that are taking place against the decision by the Macron government to try to increase the pensionable age up from 64. The anger is enormous as well as the scale of the protests which are far bigger than what we have seen in the UK. I find it quite remarkable that the French are trying to preserve a punctual age of 64 while in…

Read More Read More

Betting opens on Rutherglen & Hamilton even though there’s no vacancy

Betting opens on Rutherglen & Hamilton even though there’s no vacancy

It is looking very likely that there will be a by-election in the Scottish seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton constituency following investigations into a series of lockdown violations by the sitting MP. She is still there but her political future does not look good because the committee which has looked at the matter is calling for a four weeks suspension which would trigger a by-election. The seat has a checkered history of flipping between Labour and the SNP and it…

Read More Read More