Trump moves up in the WH2024 betting after winning the GOP Iowa caucuses
YouGov/Telegraph mega poll with forecasts for each seat predicts CON disaster
The big political news this morning is a 14k sample megapoll by YouGov for today’s Telegraph with detailed predictions for each of the seats. The outcome is terrible fo Sunak and his party. Check the details out for yourself. Mike Smithson
Record low temperatures forecast for Iowa’s polling day
On Monday it is the first event of WH2024 starting as usual with the Iowa caucuses. Inevitably, the terrible weather that the state is going through will likely impact the outcome. There’ve been fierce blizzards and heavy snowfalls. Many roads have been blocked and it’s hard to see this not having an impact on the outcome. Mancy eve of campaign events have been cancelled. My guess is that unless things improve rapidly the turnout level will be hit. Caucuses require…
Trump needs a clear victory in Iowa
Christie pulls out – a boost for Haley? Just 4 days to go before the first set piece of this year’s White House when the opening salvos and first actual voting are in Iowa with its caucuses. This time there will only be a Republican Party caucus while the Democrats contest will take place in about six weeks. The Iowa caucuses are a very difficult election to assess and there have been several instances in the past of the betting…
Nikki Haley moves up 12% in new WH2024 poll
Could she beat Trump in the New Hampshire primary? The only WH2024 bet I have placed has been on Nikki Haley to beat Trump in the first proper primary in New Hampshire towards the end of the month. She appears to be running the best campaign as doubts about Trump increase by the day. This latest poll is no surprise given Trump’s legal problems. One thing that might help her is that Democratic voters who are totally opposed to Trump…
Trump remains clear WH2024 favourite
Even though 2024 is likely to be the UK election year the US Presidential election is likely to be the biggest political betting event. Currently, it is looking as though it will be a repeat of WH2020 with Trump and Biden the contenders. I think both of them are far too old but I cannot see any change. If Trump was to step aside then you could envisage Biden pulling out in the spring. Mike Smithson
The LDs would do better at the election with Daisy Cooper as leader
I dont know whether LD Leader Ed Davey is going to survive in the role till the general election but he hasn’t been helped by the recent focus on him. His position is more precarious because his ambitious Deputy Daisy Cooper is waiting in the sidelines and there must be a reasonable chance that she could be the leader at the general election. Many in the party believe that they would come out with more seats at the election under…