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On June 9th the novelist, TV presenter, and occasional MP Nadine Dorries, announced that she was resigning as an MP “with immediate effect”. This prompted the bookies and betting exchanges to set up markets on a by-elecion in Mid Bedfordshire.. Not long afterwards the Labour party published a specially commissioned constituency Opinium poll for the seat which had Starmer’s party winning with the LDs in 4th place. I have noted many times before that constituency polls are very hard to…

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The above Tweet came out yesterday but still Dorries remains. I’m not convinced that she will quit as an MP this side of the election. Her initial “resignation” was in the expectation that she was due to be elevated to the House of Lords in Johnson’s resignation honours. It got stuck when the Lords Committee that monitors these things did not back it. In the meantime, the opposition parties are out on the campaign trail in Mid Bedfordshire in the…

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In last week’s by-elections, there was one result that stood out for being very different from the rest. This was the Tory hold in Johnson’s old seat of Hillingdon. Ever since I have wondered whether the Tory campaign there will be a model of what we will see when the general election actually happens. The blues focused on the expansion of ULEZ – the scheme initially brought in by Mayor Johnson to ensure that those who drive non-compliant cars should…

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On the face of it this could look like an attempt by Labour to help the LDs by encouraging tactical voting. But I don’t think so. All parties categorise seats into the ones that get the main focus and those that don’t and inevitably those lists are going to be written down somewhere. But you can see how the LDs would use it. They could present it as Labour Party backers in the listed seats being told that it is…

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I come to these betting numbers once again to underline the fact the perceptions of the general election outcome remain largely unchanged. The money continues to go on a LAB majority. This is not a bet that I have made directly – my wager is to lay an overall LAB majority.because I think that that offers the best values. Can I underline that bets are not predictions but statements of value. The current odds on s Lab majority are overstated….

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No doubt the party’s other general election targets are getting the same treatment and this chart will feature in dozens of leaflets right up to the general election. There is also little doubt that the seats will have similar profiles having chalked up big REMAIN votes in the referendum and a have a disproportionate proportion of graduates in their electorates. A fading Tory government led by an unpopular PM is exactly the right backcloth for the third party to flourish….

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Have the continuing LAB leads impacted on Sunak’s judgment? When you get the CONHome founder, Tim Montgomerie, raising concerns about a Tory PM’s Tweet then Number 10 should take this seriously. This is unbecoming for a PM. I can only conclude that Sunak’s consistent failure to turn the polls around has started to get to him. His Tweet above was a disgrace and he should delete it and apoligise. Mike Smithson