So far none of the major parties has managed to dominate the betting in the October 19th mid Beds by-election and as can be seen the LD. CON and LAB odds are very close to each other. All three of them think they can win so the betting is not really a guide to what’s going to happen. The LDs are the current favourite and that’s partly down to their extremely successful by-election record this parliament in which they have…
How much better would a different leader be doing ? These latest numbers from YouGov are very much in the line with what we have been seeing from other pollsters. It is now hard to see how the PM could turn it round. The Tories are stuck with someone who is an electoral liability and looks set to lead the party to a whopping defeat. At the moment there does not appear to be much appetite in the Tory party…
I fear they’re going to be disappointed We are now barely 15 months from the maximum time that this parliament can last and I think we’re going to see a lot more polling questions like the above on whether people want an early vote. The only problem with this is that I cannot see Sunak wanting to go to the country early when he’s not assured of a victory. It might be that if the polling changed and the Tories…
Speculation has already started about whether the Tories have a chance of regaining power in London. One thing that looks set to make the Tory task a lot easier are the electoral charges that Boris Johnson made when he was PM. Essentially Boris scrapped the old supplementary vote system to First Pass the Post. Under the old system candidates of the left would hope to benefit from the second platforms choices of Lib Dem, Greens and others at that end…
As most people will know I am a Lib Dem and that I live very close to the mid Bedfordshire constituency where there will be a by-election. What is intriguing about the current contest is that you can make out a case for Labour, the Tory or the Lib Dems to come out on top. I cannot recall a by-election in modern times which was effectively a three horse race. Given the proximity of the General Election then all the…
Wikipedia notes: The former MP, Chris Pincher, a former Deputy Chief Whip, was involved in a controversy following allegations of sexual misconduct. Pincher resigned as Deputy Chief Whip on 30 June 2022, and he was suspended as a Conservative MP after allegations arose that he sexually assaulted two men. Further allegations were made in July, which pre-dated his appointment by Boris Johnson, and Johnson originally denied that he knew of the complaints. It was later revealed Johnson had been aware, and many…
Above is the latest Scottish poll from R&W and as can be seen the SNP are now running neck and neck with LAB. Given the proximity of the general election, this could be highly significant especially as Scotland could provide a major source of LAB gains in its effort to form the next government. To put this into context currently just one of the constituencies north of the border was held by Labour at GE2015 In the aftermath of the…