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The rolling IndyRef polling thread…LATEST Panelbase has NO margin down to 1.2%

The rolling IndyRef polling thread…LATEST Panelbase has NO margin down to 1.2%

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Tonight’s IndyRef polling running blog A total of four polls are expected tonight and this thread and chart will be updated as new information comes in. Opinium for the Observer has NO 6% ahead and Panelbase for the Sunday Times has a gap of just 1.2%. Earlier there was a ultra small sample online poll from ICM for the S Telegraph which had an 8% YES lead – in sharp contrast to firm’s phone poll for the Guardian. There was…

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This week’s local By-Election Results

This week’s local By-Election Results

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Castle on Carlisle (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 364 (38% -4% on 2011), Conservatives 212 (22%), UKIP 208 (22%), Liberal Democrats 112 (12% -22%), Greens 51 (5% -5%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 152 (16%) on a swing of 13% from Labour to Conservative Castle on Cumbria (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 389 (38% -3%), Conservatives 245 (24% +13%), UKIP 235 (23% +3%), Liberal Democrats 112 (11% -13%), Greens 51 (5% +1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 144 (14%) on…

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…meanwhile in the race to win GE2015 now less than seven months away….

…meanwhile in the race to win GE2015 now less than seven months away….

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Sept Ipsos-MORI has CON 1% lead amongst those certain to vote but 3% behind amongst all giving an opinion pic.twitter.com/JlQ59xwTNH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 LAB lead up with today's Populus online poll Lab 37 (+1), Con 33 (-1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 LAB set to win more GE2015 seats on 2.6% fewer votes than CON according to latest @StephenDFisher projection. pic.twitter.com/mwe7mXJY98 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014

ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – too close to call

ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – too close to call

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At current odds the value bet is on YES BREAKING: Scottish #indyref too close to call says ICM @guardian poll > 42% no, 40% yes, but a full 17% undecided http://t.co/pSmwv00Zl7 — Guardian Scotland (@GdnScotland) September 12, 2014 With the IndyRef so close the value bet must be on YES. £100 bet on Betfair provides winnings of YES £350 NO £24 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 Reason why 17% DKs in ICM phone poll compared with 4% YouGov is that…

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If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women

If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women

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By more than two to one women don’t trust Salmond The big difference between the latest YouGov IndyRef poll and the one from last weekend showing a 2% YES lead has been a big switch amongst women voters. As the chart shows YES is almost maintaining a solid lead amongst men, It’s the big move amongst women voters in less than a week that have driven the big change. In the Sunday Times poll NO had just a 6% lead…

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Local By-Election Preview : September 11th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : September 11th 2014

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Castle on Carlisle (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 29, Conservatives 19, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 2 (Labour majority of 6) Result of ward at last election (2011): Labour 539 (42%), Liberal Democrats 438 (34%), Greens 135 (10%), TUSC 90 (7%), BNP 84 (7%) Candidates duly nominated: Robert Currie (Con), Richard Hunt (Green), Lawrence Jennings (Lib Dem), Fiona Mills (UKIP), Alan Taylor (Lab) Carlisle was never really a Lib Dem bright spot even at the best…

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The “Scare tactics” seem to be working: YouGov now have NO with 4% lead

The “Scare tactics” seem to be working: YouGov now have NO with 4% lead

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How the Sun is reporting its big news IndyRef poll pic.twitter.com/3PpCRoD7tf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 NO back in the led with YouGov YES: 48% (-3) NO: 52% (+3) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 YouGov #indyref "Yes" only ahead in one age group – 25 to 39 year olds. All others – inc 16 to 24 year olds – backing Scotland to remain — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) September 11, 2014 …biggest fall with Scots women, who…

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ComRes phone poll in South of Scotland finds NO 67% to YES 33%

ComRes phone poll in South of Scotland finds NO 67% to YES 33%

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New ComRes IndyRef poll for @ITVBorder of South of Scotland finds NO 67% YES 33% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 81% of those interviewed by phone for ComRes South of Scotland IndyRef poll said they were 10/10 certain to vote — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 English born respondents in ComRes South of Scotland IndyRef phone poll divide 76% NO to 13% YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 65+ segment in ComRes South of Scotland…

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