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Local By-Election Preview: September 25th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: September 25th 2014

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Epping, Hemnal on Epping Forest (Conservative Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Conservatives 37, Residents 12, Liberal Democrats 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Independents 2, Greens 1, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 16) Result of last election in ward (2011): Conservative 951 (42%), Liberal Democrats 821 (36%), Labour 231 (10%), UKIP 185 (8%), Green 83 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Kim Adams (Lib Dem), Nigel Avey (Con), Andrew Smith (UKIP), Anna Widdup (Green) By-elections held during the conference…

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Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum Day)

Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum Day)

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Abergele, Pensarn on Conwy (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 14) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 407 (55%), Independent 186 (25%), Conservative 145 (20%) Candidates duly nominated: Barry Griffiths (Ind), Val Parker (Ind), John Pitt (Con), Michael Smith (Ind), Rick Stubbs (Lab), Ken Sudlow (Ind), Sarah Wardlaw (UKIP) Conwy is one of these councils were the…

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Make no mistake the polls point to the IndyRef being on a knife-edge and so much depends on turnout

Make no mistake the polls point to the IndyRef being on a knife-edge and so much depends on turnout

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More than 80% of postal votes have now been returned The big unknown from this election is turnout – something that all the pollsters seek to measure and apply when working out their final vote shares. Thus the 2% NO lead ICM phone poll used the firm’s standard turnout adjuster of attaching a 50% discount to those who didn’t vote in previous parliamentary elections. But in the context Thursday’s totally unprecedented election we don’t know whether that’s a valid approach…

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The rolling IndyRef polling thread…LATEST Panelbase has NO margin down to 1.2%

The rolling IndyRef polling thread…LATEST Panelbase has NO margin down to 1.2%

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Tonight’s IndyRef polling running blog A total of four polls are expected tonight and this thread and chart will be updated as new information comes in. Opinium for the Observer has NO 6% ahead and Panelbase for the Sunday Times has a gap of just 1.2%. Earlier there was a ultra small sample online poll from ICM for the S Telegraph which had an 8% YES lead – in sharp contrast to firm’s phone poll for the Guardian. There was…

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This week’s local By-Election Results

This week’s local By-Election Results

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Castle on Carlisle (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 364 (38% -4% on 2011), Conservatives 212 (22%), UKIP 208 (22%), Liberal Democrats 112 (12% -22%), Greens 51 (5% -5%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 152 (16%) on a swing of 13% from Labour to Conservative Castle on Cumbria (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 389 (38% -3%), Conservatives 245 (24% +13%), UKIP 235 (23% +3%), Liberal Democrats 112 (11% -13%), Greens 51 (5% +1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 144 (14%) on…

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…meanwhile in the race to win GE2015 now less than seven months away….

…meanwhile in the race to win GE2015 now less than seven months away….

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Sept Ipsos-MORI has CON 1% lead amongst those certain to vote but 3% behind amongst all giving an opinion pic.twitter.com/JlQ59xwTNH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 LAB lead up with today's Populus online poll Lab 37 (+1), Con 33 (-1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 LAB set to win more GE2015 seats on 2.6% fewer votes than CON according to latest @StephenDFisher projection. pic.twitter.com/mwe7mXJY98 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014

ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – too close to call

ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – too close to call

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At current odds the value bet is on YES BREAKING: Scottish #indyref too close to call says ICM @guardian poll > 42% no, 40% yes, but a full 17% undecided http://t.co/pSmwv00Zl7 — Guardian Scotland (@GdnScotland) September 12, 2014 With the IndyRef so close the value bet must be on YES. £100 bet on Betfair provides winnings of YES £350 NO £24 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 Reason why 17% DKs in ICM phone poll compared with 4% YouGov is that…

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If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women

If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women

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By more than two to one women don’t trust Salmond The big difference between the latest YouGov IndyRef poll and the one from last weekend showing a 2% YES lead has been a big switch amongst women voters. As the chart shows YES is almost maintaining a solid lead amongst men, It’s the big move amongst women voters in less than a week that have driven the big change. In the Sunday Times poll NO had just a 6% lead…

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