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The SNP’s been issuing lots of data from its latest Panelbase poll but no GE15 voting intentions. Why?

The SNP’s been issuing lots of data from its latest Panelbase poll but no GE15 voting intentions. Why?

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Wiki table of all published Scottish GE15 voting intentions since June. Greens included pic.twitter.com/7YB6bVtyTr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 30, 2014 Could it be that the lead over LAB is fading? Above is a table with all the Scottish GE15 voting intention polls that have been published since June and I was hoping this morning that a final survey could be added to the list. Over the last three nights the SNP has been emailing me detailed findings from its…

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Maybe the whole idea of national voting intention polls has had its day

Maybe the whole idea of national voting intention polls has had its day

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The one thing you can say as we enter election year is that there’s no consistent picture I’ve broken the final polls of 2014 into five broad areas for comparison. CON to LAB swing The most important measure and where there’s a huge variation from the Ipsos-MORI 2.65% swing to the TNS-BMRB and Opinium 7.15%. If it was the latter on May 7th then LAB would probably secure an overall majority even if it lost all but a handful of…

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LAB has a better than 36% chance of winning most votes on May 7th

LAB has a better than 36% chance of winning most votes on May 7th

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The Ladbrokes 7/4 is a good value bet Betting, as I always say, is not about making predictions but deciding whether the chances of something happening are better than the odds available. One that falls into that category at the moment is the 7/4 that Ladbrokes have on LAB winning most votes. The Tories are on 1/2. To my mind this is an over-reaction to events in Scotland where the LAB collapse since the IndyRef amounts to only about 1%…

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LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds – but they may not be on the register and are the least reliable supporters

LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds – but they may not be on the register and are the least reliable supporters

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LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds in Opinium/Observer poll LAB 41 CON 26 GRN 19 LD 6 UKIP 3 http://t.co/4MfnKNPQp4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014 After a battering in frecent Scottish polls Labour can take some comfort this morning from an Opinium poll of new voters across England, Scotland and Wales for the Observer that shows the party with a substantial lead. That’s fine except for THREE problems. First Mr. Cameron has a clear lead in approval ratings from this segment….

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The CON, LD and GRN seats that LAB would hope to win to offset projected 38 losses to the SNP in Scotland

The CON, LD and GRN seats that LAB would hope to win to offset projected 38 losses to the SNP in Scotland

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REVISED: LAB's top 38 targets based on swing required. pic.twitter.com/mQv32B0DAN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014 @lukeakehurst But 32 of the LAB gains would be CON losses meaning that only LAB would need only 8 more gains from CON to be top party — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014 @lukeakehurst But 32 of the LAB gains would be CON losses meaning that only LAB would need only 8 more gains from CON to be top party — Mike…

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Curtice analysis of latest Scottish polling suggests that LAB could be down to 3 seats – the same as the LDs

Curtice analysis of latest Scottish polling suggests that LAB could be down to 3 seats – the same as the LDs

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There’s a great analysis by John Curtice this morning on the latest Scottish polls particularly the one out today from ICM for the Guardian. The whole article is well worth reading but the following is a key part when it comes to making Scottish Westminster seat projections:- “..What, however, this poll brings anew to the evidence is an estimate of how well the parties are doing in different types of seats in Scotland. Inevitably, these estimates are based on relatively…

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Another online Scottish poll (this time from ICM) has SNP with big lead on GE15 voting intentions

Another online Scottish poll (this time from ICM) has SNP with big lead on GE15 voting intentions

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ICM Scotland poll for Guardian follows other firms & has big GE15 lead for SNP CON 13% LAB 26% LD 6% SNP 43% UKIP 7% GRN 4%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2014 The pattern is very much the same with all the pollsters and this must be regarded as further good news for the SNP and very bad news for LAB given that it holds 41 of the 59 Scottish seats. As has been said many times the SNP surge could make things very…

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