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At GE2010 1 in 6 are thought to have voted tactically and the signs are that it could be even more prevalent at GE15

At GE2010 1 in 6 are thought to have voted tactically and the signs are that it could be even more prevalent at GE15

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How will the parties deal with the messaging challenges? Suddenly, it seems, the Westminster village has woken up to the idea that in the new complex and much more multi-partied political environment tactical voting looks set to play a much bigger role. We all think we know what we mean by this. Supporters of party A, which is not seen to be in contention in a particular constituency, are encouraged to vote for party B, which is, in the hope…

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Boris might be a CON election winner but it could be that he just gets over-stated in the polls

Boris might be a CON election winner but it could be that he just gets over-stated in the polls

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Look at what happened with his 2012 election Hills have cut their odds for Boris Johnson to be the next Prime Minister from 8/1 to 6/1 second favourite behind 4/5 favourite Ed Miliband. This seems weird because just about the only chance there is of a vacancy occurring is if Cameron wins the election when he’ll remain at Number 10. The mayor’s big opportunity will most likely come if Dave loses or he decides to step down in a few…

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3½ weeks before GE2010 leading pollsters were asked to make predictions: All but one said CON majority

3½ weeks before GE2010 leading pollsters were asked to make predictions: All but one said CON majority

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In a similar exercise reported today the consensus is a hung parliament Poll of the pollsters: Labour by a whisker… the polling firms place their bets for May http://t.co/s2lm5b0Pfd — IndyPolitics (@IndyPolitics) January 4, 2015 Whenever I get asked to make political predictions I now say that that is not what gamblers do. What we do is to make an assessment of what’s on offer and decide whether it is worth a punt or not. So if you think that…

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More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB government and fewer than a third want a CON one

More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB government and fewer than a third want a CON one

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More polling that undermines notion that UKIP voters are "Tories on holiday" A quarter would prefer LAB government pic.twitter.com/bBvTsAd2iX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2015 Tonight’s poll Tonight's Opinium poll for Observer sees LAB lead down from 7% to 1% CON 32+3 LAB 33-3 LD 8+2 UKIP 17+1 GRN 4%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2015 The tend in Opinium polls for the Observer pic.twitter.com/6hcx13yGVW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2015 Important to remember that GE15 not a national party popularity contest – but…

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The SNP continues to be the big mover in the commons seats’ spread markets – up ten seats in five weeks

The SNP continues to be the big mover in the commons seats’ spread markets – up ten seats in five weeks

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SNP continues to surge on Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR GE15 commons spread market pic.twitter.com/F015XHOw9i — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2015 The continuation of strong polling for the SNP before Christmas has reinforced the move upwards in the latest spread prices from Sporting Index. It is now exactly ten seats higher than it was in the last week in November. Clearly this is driven by the polls and the absence of bad news for Sturgeon and her party. The fact that…

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In the super-marginals main party GOTV operations will give them a big advantage

In the super-marginals main party GOTV operations will give them a big advantage

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Wikimedia How UKIP & the Greens are likely to be squeezed Those who have been actively involved in elections will recognise what is going on in the picture above. As voters arrive at the polling station they are asked by the two ladies with the rosettes (tellers) for their polling number which is printed on their polling cards. These numbers then get taken to local committee rooms where they are keyed into computers which check them against canvas and other…

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Why the Tories could need to be 10% ahead in England and Wales just to stand still

Why the Tories could need to be 10% ahead in England and Wales just to stand still

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What happened at GE2010 when you exclude Scotland One of the reasons why the latest Electoral Calculus projection, see previous thread, appeared to be so good for LAB was the way Scotland and England/Wales were treated. This is the response I got from Martin Baxter on the computation:- “The overall prediction is based on both the national (GB) polls and the Scotland-specific polls. For Scottish seats, the prediction is just based on the Scottish Westminster VI polls, and for England…

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Even though Baxter has SNP taking 47 of the 59 Scottish seats his latest projection has LAB just 5 short of a majority

Even though Baxter has SNP taking 47 of the 59 Scottish seats his latest projection has LAB just 5 short of a majority

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Latest from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/yOyYu1w1VO has LAB 5 short of majority pic.twitter.com/3r8BdjnsmU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2014 I can’t quite work out how Martin Baxter is handling his monthly predictions given the sharp rise of the SNP. From his latest data, out last night, he appears to have made his usual national computation and then over-ridden the Scottish seat data with his Scotland specific seat calculation. The result, as can be seen, is that in the model the…

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