Gunmen responsible for deadly attack on #CharlieHebdo are still on the loose, @fhollande says. http://t.co/sBOkqaRg1Y pic.twitter.com/km88JvZmCa — CNN (@CNN) January 7, 2015 RIP Charb. Assassinated over a drawing today #CharlieHebdo pic.twitter.com/X9SosWGEBf — Ricardo Coutada (@rcoutada) January 7, 2015
Are the purples starting to fade as we get closer? http://t.co/xYOsg7KTOD pic.twitter.com/bOZQzTY5Jc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 Today's YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB and CON level pegging CON 33 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 13 GRN 8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 October 6th – last time that UKIP were as low as 13% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/XfMClrsm8D — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 On UKIP's lowish numbers we need to see whether this is supported by other polling –…
How LAB had a very different election in Scotland in 2010 compared with England and Wales pic.twitter.com/9iG3CGDHIG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2015
The first two polls of 2015 pic.twitter.com/fzK2c1eIFp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2015 The first two pollsters to report at start of 2010 had CON leads of 9% & 10%. At GE10 CON vote lead was 7.3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2015 YouGov now follow Survation & ComRes in prompting for UKIP So the the general election year polling begins with LAB on small leads from the online pollsters which poll most often, Populus and YouGov. Not…
Putting UKIP’s polling into perspective Interesting that the two peaks came after the UKIP success in the Euros and then just after the Douglas Carswell defection. These figures are quite a bit lower than the normal shares for the purples that we see. This is because they are confined to 2010 main party voters only. Balance of support came from OTH or “did not vote”. Secondly they are from the key CON-LAB marginals where you’d expect UKIP to be squeezed…
How will the parties deal with the messaging challenges? Suddenly, it seems, the Westminster village has woken up to the idea that in the new complex and much more multi-partied political environment tactical voting looks set to play a much bigger role. We all think we know what we mean by this. Supporters of party A, which is not seen to be in contention in a particular constituency, are encouraged to vote for party B, which is, in the hope…
Look at what happened with his 2012 election Hills have cut their odds for Boris Johnson to be the next Prime Minister from 8/1 to 6/1 second favourite behind 4/5 favourite Ed Miliband. This seems weird because just about the only chance there is of a vacancy occurring is if Cameron wins the election when he’ll remain at Number 10. The mayor’s big opportunity will most likely come if Dave loses or he decides to step down in a few…
In a similar exercise reported today the consensus is a hung parliament Poll of the pollsters: Labour by a whisker… the polling firms place their bets for May http://t.co/s2lm5b0Pfd — IndyPolitics (@IndyPolitics) January 4, 2015 Whenever I get asked to make political predictions I now say that that is not what gamblers do. What we do is to make an assessment of what’s on offer and decide whether it is worth a punt or not. So if you think that…