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After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to be backing Ashcroft rather than Populus

After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to be backing Ashcroft rather than Populus

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Tories up 4 & back at the high point on SportingIndex commons seat market. Now just 2 behind LAB pic.twitter.com/Y9ULu3648A — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 LAB majority on the Betfair exchange slumps to lowest level yet based on last trades. LAB 11.9% chance. CON 16.7% chance. NOM 71.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 As a general rule CON backers most influenced by good news After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft CON 6% lead poll and the Populus 5%…

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Exactly a year to go before the WH2016 primaries start and Senator Elizabeth Warren is moving into the frame

Exactly a year to go before the WH2016 primaries start and Senator Elizabeth Warren is moving into the frame

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The campaign to persuade Elizabeth Warren to run for President http://t.co/bXc3sWuggn pic.twitter.com/xERcLp7jlC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 Could she beat Hillary for Democratic party nomination Last night I had an 8/1 bet on Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, to be the Democratic party nominee in next year’s White House race. She’s now second favourite in the betting and looks like she’d be a serious challenger if she decided to go for it. Until now the widespread assumption has been…

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If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON

If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON

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Lord Ashcroft phone poll, just out, has the Tories 6% ahead I can’t recall a day when two polls came out showing a diametrically picture of how the next general election is looking. The main figures are in the chart. CON is 32% with Populus and 34% with Lord Ashcroft while Populus makes it 37% to LAB with Lord Ashcroft on 28%. Confused? So am I. The fieldwork for both polls took place during exactly the same time period –…

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Pricing in the Ed factor – a negative for Labour but how big a negative?

Pricing in the Ed factor – a negative for Labour but how big a negative?

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EdM on the Andrew Marr show pic.twitter.com/gArzupDgLA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big unknown of this campaign & maybe we won’t find out till May 8th It is said that a key strategy of the Tories in the coming months will be to constantly remind voters that Ed Miliband is LAB leader and that if the party did win the election then he could end up as PM. I am sure that that is the right approach….

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Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

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A CON majority rated as being just a tad more likely than a LAB one on Betfair pic.twitter.com/PrVP160EJm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 But LAB to win most seats still marginal favourite On Betfair's "most seats" market LAB has very narrow lead over CON pic.twitter.com/7sAm9yGcpY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big conclusion is that it’s going to be very tight

At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be decisive – the LAB-CON ground war capability gap in the battlegrounds

At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be decisive – the LAB-CON ground war capability gap in the battlegrounds

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Ex-Cameron aide: Tories will lose election | Public Affairs News http://t.co/SKeYQvS2B7. See pic.twitter.com/ReAVs6BtZN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The grassroots collapse that threatens the Tories In the article David Cameron’s former chief of Staff, Alex Deane, makes this observation and predictions about the general election: “”The basic scenario in this Parliament has been clear for a while and remains unchanged in 2015: UKIP up, dividing the right, Lib Dems down, uniting the left. This becomes stronger as the…

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