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Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

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A CON majority rated as being just a tad more likely than a LAB one on Betfair pic.twitter.com/PrVP160EJm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 But LAB to win most seats still marginal favourite On Betfair's "most seats" market LAB has very narrow lead over CON pic.twitter.com/7sAm9yGcpY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big conclusion is that it’s going to be very tight

At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be decisive – the LAB-CON ground war capability gap in the battlegrounds

At last somebody’s talking about an area that could be decisive – the LAB-CON ground war capability gap in the battlegrounds

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Ex-Cameron aide: Tories will lose election | Public Affairs News http://t.co/SKeYQvS2B7. See pic.twitter.com/ReAVs6BtZN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The grassroots collapse that threatens the Tories In the article David Cameron’s former chief of Staff, Alex Deane, makes this observation and predictions about the general election: “”The basic scenario in this Parliament has been clear for a while and remains unchanged in 2015: UKIP up, dividing the right, Lib Dems down, uniting the left. This becomes stronger as the…

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If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

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Farage and Carswell pic.twitter.com/LN9BCE7d18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2015 The chances of the purples fading must now be lower One of the features of general elections in recent times is that the Lib Dems always seem to get a boost during the campaign. Thus a 4-5% increase in their final share at the election compared with pre-formal campaign polls has almost been the norm. What has driven this is the extra attention they get from the broadcast media…

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Legalising fox-hunting: A vote winner for the Tories or a vote loser?

Legalising fox-hunting: A vote winner for the Tories or a vote loser?

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Lifting the ban on fox-hunting – how supporters of the main parties divide pic.twitter.com/YTq1r57Eff — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2015 YouGov finds that the Right-Left divide over fox-hunting continues With the Tories reported to planning legalise fox-hunting if they are returned with a majority YouGov has had a look at the issue and finds support for current ban, But as the chart shows there’s a sharp right-left split on the issue with Tory voters opposing the ban the LAB…

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Methinks that Dave has made a mistake on the TV debates

Methinks that Dave has made a mistake on the TV debates

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David Cameron will refuse to take part in TV debates if Greens not included, says @bbcnickrobinson — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 8, 2015 Ed Miliband on TV debates: "The Prime Minister should be able to stand on his record and stop running scared." — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) January 8, 2015 It is hard to fault OFCOM logic that UKIP but not Greens are a major party but @David_Cameron is just too scared to debate @Nigel_Farage — Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) January…

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Ofcom’s decision not to classify the Greens as a “major party” has wider consequences than just the debates

Ofcom’s decision not to classify the Greens as a “major party” has wider consequences than just the debates

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Guardian's @patrickwintour on Ofcom decision not to classify Greens as "major party" for GE15 http://t.co/BYOYE7Uu57 pic.twitter.com/0HRwgv9cnX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2015 This morning’s Ofcom ruling on what should be the “major parties” for the general election will impact on the overall amount of TV and radio coverage the parties get during the offical “short” election campaign which starts at the beginning of April. UKIP, following its Euro2014 triumph and now having 2 MPs, always look set to be…

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