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So far at least the post-IndyRef SNP surge has barely been seen in Scottish local by-elections

So far at least the post-IndyRef SNP surge has barely been seen in Scottish local by-elections

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SNP poll surge not being seen in post IndyRef Scottish local by-elections. Chart from Rob Hayward – election analyst pic.twitter.com/H6u35Btkfi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2015 Just compare that with the UKIP experience in England Yesterday I attended the annual media briefing by the respected elections analyst and former Conservative MP Robert Hayward. It was a packed and thought provoking session which will be reflected in the media in the coming weeks. There are a number of slides that…

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Tories slump 5 while Greens jump to 11 in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll

Tories slump 5 while Greens jump to 11 in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll

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Tories slump 5 while Greens jump to 11 in this week's Ashcroft poll pic.twitter.com/1tZD76oWPp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2015 Greens hit their highest poll share ever in latest Ashcroft National Poll After last week’s poll which had the Tories 6% today’s Ashcroft National Poll is even more striking – Greens at 11% CON 29-5 LAB 28= LD 9+1 UKIP 15-1 GRN 11+3

Another Scottish poll gives a little bit of cheer to LAB but not that much

Another Scottish poll gives a little bit of cheer to LAB but not that much

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Survation for the Daily Record SNP 46%-2 LAB 26%+2 CON 14%-2 LD 7%+2 UKIP 4%= On what is set to be a very big polling day the first news we have is of a Survation poll in Scotland for the Daily Record. The numbers are above and show that the SNP still has a very big lead over Labour which would cause Miliband’s party to lose a massive number of seats. Scotland is so important to this election because of…

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TNS-BMRB has LAB retaining it’s 7% lead while YouGov has CON and LAB level-pegging

TNS-BMRB has LAB retaining it’s 7% lead while YouGov has CON and LAB level-pegging

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LAB 35%= CON 28%= UKIP 18%-1 LD 6%+1 GRN 5%-2 OTH 9%+3 TNS-BMRB is one of nine pollsters currently producing at least monthly ahead of GE15 and is one that doesn’t quite attract the same coverage. It operates differently from all other firms. People are contacted face to face but then complete the survey online usually at home. It’s the way the firm selects its sample that makes it unique. With all polls you compare the numbers with what happened…

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Lunchtime round-up with Marf on the pensioners bonds and the coalition struggling in the “blame for the cuts” tracker

Lunchtime round-up with Marf on the pensioners bonds and the coalition struggling in the “blame for the cuts” tracker

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Politicalbetting's Marf on Osborne's new pensioner bonds pic.twitter.com/low9iePcEt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2015 Pensioners, as we all know, are most likely to be on the electoral register and most likely to vote. They are also the segment of the population most likely to have savings on which, in the era of ultra low interest rates, they are receiving a pittance. Also the polling suggests that they are more likely to be CON supporters than other age segments. This…

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Our big parties need to learn to behave like small ones

Our big parties need to learn to behave like small ones

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Henry G Manson on the first phase of Campaign ’15 The Tories say voting UKIP would let Labour in. Labour say voting the SNP or Greens would only help the Tories. The SNP and the Greens both say Labour are the same as the Tories. The endless and numbing permutations go on and on and on with deceitful Lib Dem bar charts thrown in for fun. The early skirmishes of the general election have heavily featured on tactical considerations as…

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Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage

Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage

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@LordAshcroft polling from Thanet S where Al Murray plans to stand at GE15 He could have huge impact pic.twitter.com/FBmz8yhp7Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 What’ll this do the the UKIP leader’s bid to become an MP? Al Murray, the public school educated Oxford graduate, who has risen to fame as the Pub Landlord, launched his bid to take on Nigel Farage in Thanet South this afternoon. Given his popularity and the fact that he’s chosen Thanet South it does look…

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Cameron’s big mistake was not killing off the debates a year ago

Cameron’s big mistake was not killing off the debates a year ago

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As it is he either agrees or continues to be labelled “chicken” As an incumbent PM facing an opposition leader with as poor personal ratings as Ed Miliband’s it has been apparent for a long time that the best outcome for DC would be for no debates to take place. Why give Ed a platform that puts him equal with Dave? This is the more so now that Ofcom has deemed UKIP to be a major party and the threat…

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