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PB/Polling Matters Podcast: What does Labour do next?

PB/Polling Matters Podcast: What does Labour do next?

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Polling Matters is an independent, non partisan podcast providing, in conjunction with PB, expert polling news and political analysis in the aftermath of the 2015 General Election. This week, host Keiran Pedley discusses why Labour lost and what’s next for the party featuring interviews with Lord Foulkes and Professor John Curtice and analysis from regular Polling Matters contributors Rob Vance and Leo Barasi. Keiran tweets about polling and politics at @keiranpedley

Richard Tyndall on “Laying the groundwork for an ‘Out’ vote”

Richard Tyndall on “Laying the groundwork for an ‘Out’ vote”

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. The three challenges for those who want a NO vote It has been generally accepted that the ‘Out’ side currently face an uphill fight to try and win the referendum which will be held at some point over the next two or so years. Whilst there is overwhelming support in the country for reform of the EU and strong, but minority, support for leaving, unless the ‘Out’ side can produce a convincing argument as to why life will be…

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Labour leadership. TV Hustings will give the unknowns a chance to shine

Labour leadership. TV Hustings will give the unknowns a chance to shine

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Liz Kendall now clear 2nd favourite in Labour's leadership election pic.twitter.com/Yv716zxQM7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 24, 2015 Don Brind on how the battle might evolve I sat in a pub in Croydon a couple of days before polling day after an evening canvassing with Clive. We agreed that we had a brilliant Labour candidate in Sarah Jones – but what about Ed Miliband and the doubts we had both heard on the doorsteps? What did Clive think? “He can’t…

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Searching for a parallel to 2015

Searching for a parallel to 2015

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Parallels from the past can never be as neat as those proposing them might like to hope. For starters, any modern comparison for 2015 could never do justice to the SNP’s triumph, and what happens in Scotland over the next five years could dramatically change the Parliamentary arithmetic in 2020. Regardless, let’s see what we can come up with, focussing on the two main parties. 1992 is a very tempting parallel, and probably the one that offers Labour the most…

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As the post GE15 polling debate continues SPIN’s Aidan Nutbrown asks “Are Elections Random?”

As the post GE15 polling debate continues SPIN’s Aidan Nutbrown asks “Are Elections Random?”

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The outcome showed why punters should expect the unexpected Albert Einstein famously said: “God doesn’t play dice”. He was wrong. Everything has a random element to it. I aim to board the 8.08 train each morning but sometimes for unforeseen reasons I miss it. And sometimes for unforeseen reasons it doesn’t appear. This uncertainty is precisely why betting is fun, and why bookies exist. It is a given that sports events have large degrees of uncertainty to them. A horse…

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Why this could be like 1992 when the polls were simply wrong

Why this could be like 1992 when the polls were simply wrong

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Elections & polling expert Keiran Pedley examines whether the UK polling industry could be about to experience a crisis not seen since the polls got it so wrong in 1992.  Those that follow polling closely will recall the famous situation in 1992 where the polls appeared to point to a Labour victory (of sorts) only for the Conservatives to prevail. Since that time, much work has gone into correcting those mistakes and subsequent election results have shown that the polling…

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Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015

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Kenton on Brent (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 56, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrats 1 (Labour majority of 49) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,798, 1,796, 1,669 (53%) Labour 1,139, 1,040, 946 (32%) Liberal Democrats 221, 153, 125 (5%) Green 348 (11%) Candidates duly nominated: Michaela Lichten (Green), Vincent Lo (Lab), Michael Maurice (Con), Bob Wharton (Lib Dem) Brent (for the most part) has been a Conservative / Labour…

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Local By-Election Results: February 12th 2015

Local By-Election Results: February 12th 2015

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Bar Hill on Cambridgeshire (Con Defence) Lynda Harford (Con) 787 (46% +1%) Martin Hale (UKIP) 251 (15% -7%) Fiona Whelan (Lib Dem) 238 (14% +6%) Alex Smith (Lab) 235 (14% unchanged) Claudia Roland (Green) 200 (12% +3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 536 (31%) on a swing of 4% from UKIP to Con Oswestry East on Shropshire (Con Defence) John Price (Con) 629 (47% +3%) Claire Norris (Lab) 247 (19% -4%) Duncan Kerr (Green) 231 (17% no candidate in…

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