In a slightly shorter version of the Polling Matters podcast (14 mins 23 secs) Keiran discusses the exit poll with Professor John Curtice. We discuss how it was done and how Professor Curtice felt when he realised it was about to say something very different to what the opinion polls had said. Keiran Pedley is an Associate Director at GfK NOP and tweets about polling and politics in a personal capacity at @keiranpedley
Rothwell on Kettering Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: Jelley 771, Sumpter 853 E, Talbot 777 E Labour: Harris 614, Jones 623, Mills 951 E United Kingdom Independence Party: Hogston 370 Green Party: Heath 82, Jones 119, Reeves 89 No change from 2011 Wisbech South on Cambridgeshire Result: Conservative 1,020 (64% +33%), UKIP 298 (19% -19%), Labour 219 (14% -2%), Liberal Democrats 61 (4% -10%) Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 722 (45%) on a swing of 26% from…
Rothwell on Kettering (Deferred Election, Two Con defences, One Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 26, Labour 9, Independents 1 Result of ward at last election (2011):Â Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: Ian Jelley 1,103 (E), Margaret Talbot 1,079 (E), Neil Matthews 1,052 (37%) Labour: Alan Mills 1,077 (E), Mark Hughes 847, Martin Fage 778 (36%) Independent: Alan Pote 616 (20%) Liberal Democrat: John Holt 230 (8%) Candidates duly nominated: Conservatives: Ian Jelley, Karl Sumpter, Margaret Talbot Labour:…
Polling Matters is an independent, non partisan podcast providing, in conjunction with PB, expert polling news and political analysis in the aftermath of the 2015 General Election. This week, host Keiran Pedley discusses why Labour lost and what’s next for the party featuring interviews with Lord Foulkes and Professor John Curtice and analysis from regular Polling Matters contributors Rob Vance and Leo Barasi. Keiran tweets about polling and politics at @keiranpedley
. The three challenges for those who want a NO vote It has been generally accepted that the ‘Out’ side currently face an uphill fight to try and win the referendum which will be held at some point over the next two or so years. Whilst there is overwhelming support in the country for reform of the EU and strong, but minority, support for leaving, unless the ‘Out’ side can produce a convincing argument as to why life will be…
Liz Kendall now clear 2nd favourite in Labour's leadership election pic.twitter.com/Yv716zxQM7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 24, 2015 Don Brind on how the battle might evolve I sat in a pub in Croydon a couple of days before polling day after an evening canvassing with Clive. We agreed that we had a brilliant Labour candidate in Sarah Jones – but what about Ed Miliband and the doubts we had both heard on the doorsteps? What did Clive think? “He can’t…
Parallels from the past can never be as neat as those proposing them might like to hope. For starters, any modern comparison for 2015 could never do justice to the SNP’s triumph, and what happens in Scotland over the next five years could dramatically change the Parliamentary arithmetic in 2020. Regardless, let’s see what we can come up with, focussing on the two main parties. 1992 is a very tempting parallel, and probably the one that offers Labour the most…
The outcome showed why punters should expect the unexpected Albert Einstein famously said: “God doesn’t play diceâ€. He was wrong. Everything has a random element to it. I aim to board the 8.08 train each morning but sometimes for unforeseen reasons I miss it. And sometimes for unforeseen reasons it doesn’t appear. This uncertainty is precisely why betting is fun, and why bookies exist. It is a given that sports events have large degrees of uncertainty to them. A horse…