Making a tissue on a “Betting Without” market This is a betting thread without a market as yet. However, the best prices on any political market can usually be found within either the first six hours or the last six. So a little forethought as to what you’d be prepared to back – and at what price – can often be rewarded handsomely. Someone launching a “without the SNP†market on Holyrood is only going to be a matter of…
North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Labour: Donald Barr 143, Gareth Walls 132 Conservatives: Sally Derham-Wilkes 793 , Nick Geary 775 United Kingdom Independence Party: Robin Grey 315, Janet Hatton 288 Two Conservative HOLDS Holmwoods on Mole Valley (Deferred Election, One Liberal Democrat Defence from 2011, one UKIP defence from 2014) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: James Baird 492, Emma Whittinger 458 United Kingdom Independence Party: Michael Foulston 201, Stephen Morgan…
Why Yvette is the smart bet For obvious reasons there isn’t a lot of polling out there at the moment. This makes following the true state of the Labour leadership contest quite tricky. Fortunately, we had a poll yesterday from Ipsos Mori that looked at the Labour leadership among the general public and Labour voters. The tables are here. Let’s get the caveats out of the way first. Labour ‘voters’ are not necessarily representative of the membership that will actually…
North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences) Result of last full election (2011): Conservatives 21, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 18) Result of ward at last full election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,136, 1,001 (75%) Labour: 381 (25%) Candidates duly nominated: Labour: Donald Barr, Gareth Walls Conservatives: Sally Derham-Wilkes, Nick Geary United Kingdom Independence Party: Robin Grey, Janet Hatton It has often been said that the seaside resorts of Britain “have seen…
Wallington South on Sutton (Lib Dem defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Liberal Democrats 45, Conservatives 9 (Liberal Democrat majority of 36) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats: 1,593, 1,558, 1,221 (37%) Conservatives: 825, 649, 571 (19%) United Kingdom Independence Party: 694 (16%) Keep Our St. Helier Hospital Party: 377 (9%) Labour: 374, 358, 283 (9%) Green Party: 301, 274 (7%) English Democrats: 110 (3%) Candidates duly nominated: Andy Beadle (UKIP),…
In a slightly shorter version of the Polling Matters podcast (14 mins 23 secs) Keiran discusses the exit poll with Professor John Curtice. We discuss how it was done and how Professor Curtice felt when he realised it was about to say something very different to what the opinion polls had said. Keiran Pedley is an Associate Director at GfK NOP and tweets about polling and politics in a personal capacity at @keiranpedley
Rothwell on Kettering Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: Jelley 771, Sumpter 853 E, Talbot 777 E Labour: Harris 614, Jones 623, Mills 951 E United Kingdom Independence Party: Hogston 370 Green Party: Heath 82, Jones 119, Reeves 89 No change from 2011 Wisbech South on Cambridgeshire Result: Conservative 1,020 (64% +33%), UKIP 298 (19% -19%), Labour 219 (14% -2%), Liberal Democrats 61 (4% -10%) Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 722 (45%) on a swing of 26% from…
Rothwell on Kettering (Deferred Election, Two Con defences, One Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 26, Labour 9, Independents 1 Result of ward at last election (2011):Â Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: Ian Jelley 1,103 (E), Margaret Talbot 1,079 (E), Neil Matthews 1,052 (37%) Labour: Alan Mills 1,077 (E), Mark Hughes 847, Martin Fage 778 (36%) Independent: Alan Pote 616 (20%) Liberal Democrat: John Holt 230 (8%) Candidates duly nominated: Conservatives: Ian Jelley, Karl Sumpter, Margaret Talbot Labour:…