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Local By-Election Preview : June 30th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : June 30th 2015

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Pentyrch on Cardiff (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservatives 7, Independents 4, Plaid Cymru 2 (Labour majority of 17) Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 772 (54%), Labour 413 (29%), Plaid Cymru 171 (12%), Green 40 (3%), Liberal Democrat 22 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: Cadan ap Tomos (Lib Dem), Paul Fisher (Lab), Gavin Hill (Con), Munawar Mughal (Ind), Ruth Osner (Green), Hywel Wigley (Plaid) Cardiff, the capital city of…

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Guest Slot: Social media and shy rightwingers

Guest Slot: Social media and shy rightwingers

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Tissue Price on the polling errors across Europe The inquest into the polling disaster at the UK General Election continues. Matt Singh of NumberCruncherPolitics provided an excellent overview of the pollsters’ initial thoughts last week, ahead of the first meeting of the official BPC/MRS inquiry. Some pollsters think faulty sampling was the principal cause of error, some blame turnout modelling, and one thinks a genuine late swing was the biggest single factor. Dan Hodges channels Emile Zola in accusing the…

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Local By-Election Preview : June 25th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : June 25th 2015

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Market and West Deeping on South Kesteven (Deferred Election: One Conservative Defence and Two Independent Defences from 2011) Result of council at last full election (2011): Conservatives 39, Independents 12, Labour 6, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 20) Result of ward at last full election (2011) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: 959, 766 (40%) Independents: 847, 844, 533 (35%) Green Party: 622, 330, 302 (26%) Candidates duly nominated: Conservative: Nick Neilson Liberal Democrats: Adam Brookes Independents: Ashley Baxter, Bob…

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Holyrood 2016: who will come second?

Holyrood 2016: who will come second?

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Making a tissue on a “Betting Without” market This is a betting thread without a market as yet. However, the best prices on any political market can usually be found within either the first six hours or the last six. So a little forethought as to what you’d be prepared to back – and at what price – can often be rewarded handsomely. Someone launching a “without the SNP” market on Holyrood is only going to be a matter of…

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Local By-Election Results : June 18th 2015

Local By-Election Results : June 18th 2015

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North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Labour: Donald Barr 143, Gareth Walls 132 Conservatives: Sally Derham-Wilkes 793 , Nick Geary 775 United Kingdom Independence Party: Robin Grey 315, Janet Hatton 288 Two Conservative HOLDS Holmwoods on Mole Valley (Deferred Election, One Liberal Democrat Defence from 2011, one UKIP defence from 2014) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: James Baird 492, Emma Whittinger 458 United Kingdom Independence Party: Michael Foulston 201, Stephen Morgan…

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Keiran Pedley on the Ipsos Mori poll that puts Andy and Yvette neck and neck

Keiran Pedley on the Ipsos Mori poll that puts Andy and Yvette neck and neck

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Why Yvette is the smart bet For obvious reasons there isn’t a lot of polling out there at the moment. This makes following the true state of the Labour leadership contest quite tricky. Fortunately, we had a poll yesterday from Ipsos Mori that looked at the Labour leadership among the general public and Labour voters. The tables are here. Let’s get the caveats out of the way first. Labour ‘voters’ are not necessarily representative of the membership that will actually…

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Local By-Election Preview: June 18th 2015

Local By-Election Preview: June 18th 2015

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North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences) Result of last full election (2011): Conservatives 21, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 18) Result of ward at last full election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,136, 1,001 (75%) Labour: 381 (25%) Candidates duly nominated: Labour: Donald Barr, Gareth Walls Conservatives: Sally Derham-Wilkes, Nick Geary United Kingdom Independence Party: Robin Grey, Janet Hatton It has often been said that the seaside resorts of Britain “have seen…

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Local By-Election Preview including the big election in Tower Hamlets

Local By-Election Preview including the big election in Tower Hamlets

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Wallington South on Sutton (Lib Dem defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Liberal Democrats 45, Conservatives 9 (Liberal Democrat majority of 36) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats: 1,593, 1,558, 1,221 (37%) Conservatives: 825, 649, 571 (19%) United Kingdom Independence Party: 694 (16%) Keep Our St. Helier Hospital Party: 377 (9%) Labour: 374, 358, 283 (9%) Green Party: 301, 274 (7%) English Democrats: 110 (3%) Candidates duly nominated: Andy Beadle (UKIP),…

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