politicalbetting.com

What happened in London at the General Election? As elsewhere, London was a story of Labour success and Conservative disaster. Of the 75 Constituencies, Labour won 59 (+10), the Conservatives 9 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 6 (+3) and the remaining seat was won by Jeremy Corbyn standing as an Independent in Islington North. As for vote share, Labour won 43% (-5), Conservatives 20.5% (-11.5%) and the Liberal Democrats 11% (-4). The Greens won 10%, Reform 9% and the other 6.5%…

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When the Welsh Assembly was approved in 1997 by a wafer-thin margin of 50.3% to 49.7%, it was for just 60 members elected by a silly iteration of the D’Hondt top up system.* This was because Wales wasn’t an important place and the Assembly wasn’t an important institution. Blair called it a ‘parish council’ and many parish councils felt slighted at the comparison. The now Senedd Cymru by contrast is a fairly significant law making body with extensive powers over…

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A quick update on the 2024 PB Predictions Competition. We now have the result for the UK General Election question which you may remember asked entrants to predict the election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Answer: Labour 172 seat majority (±10% range = 155 to 189). Four people guessed the Labour majority to within 10%: @Cyclefree @NickPalmer @TheWhiteRabbit and closest of all @GF2, whose guess was a Labour majority of 180.  Under the scoring rules they each get 20…

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As the title says, and many here will have gathered from my posts, I am left wing and not in the Labour Party. So you may expect me to be annoyed that Labour have got a massive majority to do with what they wish. And, to some extent, I am. But, when it comes to the actual results of the election and staying up on election night, I was and still am pretty happy – and so were a lot…

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1) The collapse of the SNP. They lost half a million votes (42% of their 2019 total) and with it 39 seats. Its remaining 9 seats are not remotely safe – 7 of them are in the top 10 most marginal seats in Scotland. 2) The collapse of the Tories. They lost nearly 400k votes – more than half their 2019 total. That only lost them one seat vs 2019, but they are just not as powerful as they were….

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When Sky News came and interviewed me, there were various requests and suggestions for PBisms I could try to slip into the package. I failed. But in the early hours of this morning, after hearing the ANME result from the returning officer, we were asked to show no sign or share any comment about the result of what had been a very tight race. I couldn’t resist making a subtle gesture to a pre-planned stunt as I passed our encampment….

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As we all await the bong at 10:00 PM, I’ve prepped up a few spreadsheets that will try and sort the wheat from the chaff. Sheet 1 This is the most important, and should collate the early results, click here At about 2:30, move onto sheet 2 The final sheet is here Right now these this has every constituency, and is the most likely to fall over. The first two sheets are attempting to do less so with a fair…

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INTRODUCTION Some of you may remember the “Chronicle of a Bet Foretold” PB series in 2019. It was meant to be a cumulative series but real-life intruded and it fizzled out. It covers my real-life betting and seeing as I have now placed bets on UKGE2024 you’ll forgive me if I resurrect it for the latest instalment. It is not, unfortunately, a happy tale. BETTING SHOPS Most people on PB bet online. They set up accounts and select from a…

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