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Local By-Election Review 2015 : Part One

Local By-Election Review 2015 : Part One

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Running before the Storm : Before the General Election (24 local by-elections) It was fairly obvious as soon as Big Ben chimed midnight ushering in the arrival of 2015 that everyone’s mind would instantly focus on the general election (indeed some of the parties started campaigning almost immediately the Christmas decorations came down) but local by-elections are no respecter of national campaigns and within days of those decorations coming down the local by-election circus started up again in Bolsover where…

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Three words pollsters would rather you didn’t mention; differential non response

Three words pollsters would rather you didn’t mention; differential non response

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A special column by ex-ICM boss & polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow While trumpeting the fact that samples are representative of the adult population, researchers seldom, if ever, publish response rate data. Truth is that for telephone polls, response rates are frighteningly low and falling. The reasons for this are varied, but include the fact that many of us have become wary of calls from strangers, having been bombarded with unsolicited sales calls and by “suggers”, the industry term for people…

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Local By-Election Preview : December 23rd 2015

Local By-Election Preview : December 23rd 2015

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Grendon, Underwood and Brill (Con defence) on Aylesbury Vale Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 43, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 4, Labour 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 1,068 (55%), United Kingdom Independence Party 427 (22%), Green Party 246 (13%), Liberal Democrats 213 (11%) Candidates duly nominated: Cameron Branston (Con), Gary Good (UKIP), Julian Newman (Lib Dem) Aylesbury Vale is perhaps a fitting way to end…

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Corbyn supporters are a broad church. Labour MPs worried that he is leading them to defeat need to engage with their new members.

Corbyn supporters are a broad church. Labour MPs worried that he is leading them to defeat need to engage with their new members.

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The Donald Brind column: From a Labour perspective “I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw. The Shavian quote was offered to me by the wise and erudite Lewis Baston after I recounted to him a Twitter spat with blogger Dan Hodges. For the avoidance of doubt, Hodges, who hails from a Labour family but earns his living from the Telegraph and the Spectator, is…

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Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-Election Preview : December 17th 2015

Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-Election Preview : December 17th 2015

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Gogarth (Con defence) on Conwy Result: Conservative 318 (42% +12%), Labour 187 (25% -3%), Plaid Cymru 167 (22% +10%), Liberal Democrat 49 (7%), Independent 28 (4% -26%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 131 (17%) on a swing of 7.5% from Labour to Conservative Kensal Green (Lab defence) on Brent Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 56, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 49) Result of ward at last election (2014): Embooldened denotes elected Labour 1,819,…

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Before tonight’s big GOP debate some new Iowa polling and Local By-Election Preview

Before tonight’s big GOP debate some new Iowa polling and Local By-Election Preview

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Loras College poll has Cruz 7% ahead in IowaCruz 30Trump 23Rubio 11Carson 11Bush 6Fiorina 3,Paul 2Huckabee 2Christie 0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 @ppppolls have Trump still ahead in IowaTrump 28Cruz 25Rubio 14Carson 10Bush 7Fiorina 3Christie 3Huckabee 3Paul 2Kasich 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 ABC/Wash Post poll has Trump with big lead in national pollTrump 38Cruz 15Rubio 12Carson 12Bush 5Christie 4Paul 2Kasich 2Fiorina 1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 Republican nominee race: At…

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An LD won off UKIP in this week’s Local By-Elections

An LD won off UKIP in this week’s Local By-Elections

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Kinson South (Two Conservative defences) on Bournemouth Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Apology Number One: The result last time was for Kinson NORTH ward, this is the correct result for Kinson SOUTH ward United Kingdom Independence Party 1,224 (25%) Conservatives 1,188, 1,147, 919 (25%) Labour 1,083, 951, 875 (22%) Bournemouth Independents 489 (10%) Green Party 471 (10%) Liberal Democrats 378 (8%) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 520, 509 (33% +8%) Labour 471, 371 (29% +7%)…

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Donald Brind wonders whether Osborne’s luck will hold?

Donald Brind wonders whether Osborne’s luck will hold?

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The Friday column From a Labour perspective “We have an economic plan that is delivering for Britain”. When George Osborne uttered his familiar mantra in the Commons on Wednesday it sounded as though he was clinging to a piece of wreckage after his encounter with Angela Eagle. The duo were standing in for their bosses as first secretary of state and his shadow, rather than in their day jobs as Chancellor and shadow Business Secretary. Questioned about the Cumbria flood…

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