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Don Brind says there’s no solid evidence for making Corbyn odds on favourite. He could lose.

Don Brind says there’s no solid evidence for making Corbyn odds on favourite. He could lose.

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Momentum might being beaten at their own game Back in 2007 I emailed Mike Smithson: “You should advise your readers: ‘don’t bet on an election unless you understand the voting system’” At the time the pollsters and the bookies were making Alan Johnson favourite to become Labour deputy leader. I was a member of Harriet Harman’s campaign and I knew how much effort was going into getting second preferences from other candidates. In the event, the second preferences from John…

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This week’s by-elections. SNP and LAB both win and lose a seat from each other

This week’s by-elections. SNP and LAB both win and lose a seat from each other

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Irvine West (SNP defence) on North Ayrshire First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,164 (37% unchanged), Labour 1,029 (33% -7%), Conservative 639 (21% +9%), Socialist Labour Party 131 (4% +3%), Green Party 94 (3%, no candidate in 2012), Liberal Democrat 48 (2% -3%) SNP lead of 135 (4%) on a swing of 3.5% from Lab to SNP Labour GAIN from SNP on the sixth count Renfrew South and Gallowhill (Lab defence) on Renfrewshire First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,309…

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Tonight’s Local By-Elections : Previewed by Harry Hayfield

Tonight’s Local By-Elections : Previewed by Harry Hayfield

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Irvine West (SNP defence) on North Ayrshire Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 12, Labour 11, Independents 6, Conservative 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 691, 1,374 E (40%) Scottish National Party 1,624, 265 (37%) Conservatives 614 (12%) Liberal Democrats 246 (5%) Independent 4% Socialist Labour Party 81 (1%) Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 51 (1%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 38,394 (57%) LEAVE 29,110…

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Local By-Election Results : UKIP & LAB gain and lose a seat from each other – LD revival continues

Local By-Election Results : UKIP & LAB gain and lose a seat from each other – LD revival continues

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Beaver (Lab defence) on Ashford Result: United Kingdom Independence Party 373 (42% +11%), Labour 243 (27% -4%), Conservative 240 (27% unchanged), Green Party 31 (3%, no candidate in 2015) United Kingdom Independence Party GAIN from Labour with a majority of 130 (15%) on a swing of 7.5% from Labour to UKIP East Brighton (Lab defence) on Brighton and Hove Result: Labour 1,488 (58% +11%), Conservatives 514 (20% -3%), Green Party 286 (11% -9%), United Kingdom Independence Party 152 (6%, no…

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Local By-Elections : 4th August is Super Thursday with 4 Con, 2 Lab, and 1 UKIP defence

Local By-Elections : 4th August is Super Thursday with 4 Con, 2 Lab, and 1 UKIP defence

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Beaver (Lab defence) on Ashford Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 34, Labour 4, Independents 3, Liberal Democrat 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 25) Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 817, 645 (31%) United Kingdom Independence Party 812 (31%) Conservatives 715, 423 (27%) Green Party 195, 135 (7%) Independent 126 (5%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,314 (41%) LEAVE 41,472 (59%) on a turnout of 77% Candidates duly nominated: Jo…

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Owen: Lay off Jeremy. Challenge Theresa May

Owen: Lay off Jeremy. Challenge Theresa May

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Donald Brind with his advice for the LAB challenger He may have used some dodgy language – “smashing” a woman back on her heels is beyond ugly at a time when misogyny is rife in politics – but I was cheered by Owen Smith’s desire to take on Theresa May. Ousting the Tory Prime Minister is – or at least ought to be – the key test for a Labour leader. So far Smith has been defining himself against Jeremy…

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Labour’s Parliamentary pain is not just bad for Labour, but for the country as a whole

Labour’s Parliamentary pain is not just bad for Labour, but for the country as a whole

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  Joff Wild on the divides in the main opposition party Today’s Daily Telegraph ran an intriguing piece about plans being hatched by some Labour MPs if, as expected, Jeremy Corbyn wins the party’s leadership election in September. According to the newspaper’s political correspondent Ben Riley-Smith, rebels are exploring the possibility of setting up a semi-independent party in the Commons that would have its own leader and front bench, and would aim to replace Corbyn’s Labour as the official opposition….

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The LDs winning streak continues in the latest round of local elections – now 7 gains in July

The LDs winning streak continues in the latest round of local elections – now 7 gains in July

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Harry Hayfield’s round-up contests in principal auhorities Newlyn and Goonhavern (Con defence) on Cornwall Result: Liberal Democrat 247 (24%, no candidate in 2013), Conservative 234 (23% -23%), Yeo (Independent) 163 (16%), Mebyon Kernow 161 (16% -28%), Labour 77 (8% -2%), Tucker (Independent) 75 (7%), Thomas (Independent) 54 (5%) Total Independent vote: 292 (29%, no candidates in 2012) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 13 (1%) on a notional swing of 23.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat Harringay…

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