politicalbetting.com

It’s late on 6th November 2024. CNN’s election map guru, John King, has finally filled in the slowest counting counties in the crucial swing states. The result is in… …And neither Trump nor Harris has an electoral college majority. Both main party candidates have failed to secure the magic 270 delegates required either because it is a tie at 269 a piece or because a third party candidate has secured a decent result. So, what happens now? On 9th February…

Read More Read More

Cards on the table, I think Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. At the end of the Democratic National Convention, it’s apparent that the handover of the baton from Biden to Harris has gone more smoothly than anyone predicted, or had a right to expect. A party, more used to thinking of itself as a fractious coalition, is waking up to headlines which declare “Democrats in Array”, and is evidently enjoying the experience. And Harris…

Read More Read More

The smart money seems to be moving to Kamala Harris as she rides a wave of Democratic party enthusiasm and her polling shows an edge in key swing states. Although one should always remember the old adage that no ordinary voter switches on to the candidates before Labor Day, there’s a feeling building that this may well be Trump’s last stand. A successful convention this week and a big speech by the Vice President may further secure the polls. Seems…

Read More Read More

One factor that may complicate swing in key states this year is the number of abortion ballots that are going on. For good or ill, the Dobbs v Jackson ruling by the Supreme Court has made this into a very significant political battleground. We have some evidence that this is not to the advantage of Republicans. In 2022 six states had abortion related constitutional referendums: California, Michigan, and Vermont to guarantee the right to an abortion; Kansas and Kentucky to…

Read More Read More

The Trump campaign has a great deal of thanks to give to Evan Vucci. For it is he that has taken what will be the defining photo of the 2024 US election. Whether you like it or not, the picture is not dissimilar to that most iconic of American photos – the flag raising atop Mount Suribachi during the final stages of the Pacific War (Iwo Jima). This I believe will resonate particularly with older voters and strengthens Trump’s (Although…

Read More Read More

OFSTED. At the moment, OFSTED is undergoing a review led by Christine Gilbert into its performance and practices. Why Gilbert, I have no idea. It seems unlikely that any changes will happen before the review concludes. Labour have pledged to bring in report cards instead of overall judgements, but how that works in practice, if it ever does, remains unclear. The unloved curriculum framework, which may be politely described as a fucking train crash, seems set to stay for now…

Read More Read More

Are all historians fascists?  One might be forgiven for thinking so. Consider the ‘great’ leaders of history. Who comes to mind?  (At this point I feel I should apologise to historians for butchering good scholarship to make a rhetorical point, but please bear with me.) On the basis of historical precedent it’s hard to argue that historians looking back on the early 21st century would pick anyone other than Putin as our greatest leader: I hope it doesn’t need to…

Read More Read More

What happened in London at the General Election? As elsewhere, London was a story of Labour success and Conservative disaster. Of the 75 Constituencies, Labour won 59 (+10), the Conservatives 9 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 6 (+3) and the remaining seat was won by Jeremy Corbyn standing as an Independent in Islington North. As for vote share, Labour won 43% (-5), Conservatives 20.5% (-11.5%) and the Liberal Democrats 11% (-4). The Greens won 10%, Reform 9% and the other 6.5%…

Read More Read More