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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’ and predictions for June

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’ and predictions for June

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour’s recent poll surge is ‘real’ and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close. Later in the show, Keiran…

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A Labour view of the party’s looming electoral disaster

A Labour view of the party’s looming electoral disaster

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Don Brind looks at landslides past I have a soft spot for Lib Dem peer Dick Taverne even though I cut my teeth as a Labour Party press officer trying to end his political career. His letter to the Guardian this week struck a chord. “Mrs May is riding high, apparently heading for a general election triumph, idolised by the tabloids for defying those beastly Europeans who seek to do Britain down. Today’s winners often end up as tomorrow’s losers,”…

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Local By-Election Preview May 18th 2017 (T-21 days until Election 2017)

Local By-Election Preview May 18th 2017 (T-21 days until Election 2017)

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Reeth and Arkengarthdale on Richmondshire (Ind defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 21, Independents 7, Richmondshire Independents 4, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 8) Result of ward at last election (2015): Ind 544 (76%), Green 116 (16%), Lab 56 (8%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 11,945 (43%) LEAVE 15,691 (57%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Ian Scott (Con) Result: Conservative GAIN from Independent, unopposed Enfield Lock on Enfield (Lab…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Discussing today’s GfK / Business Insider survey results

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Discussing today’s GfK / Business Insider survey results

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Adam Bienkov and Adam Payne from Business Insider UK to discuss today’s GfK/Business Insider poll results. The panel discuss the scale of the Conservative lead, what’s happened to the Lib Dems and why Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings are improving (and why it probably won’t matter). They also discuss what’s behind May’s approval rating plus interesting findings from the survey that suggest Tony Blair is less popular than Jeremy Corbyn. The discussion…

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GE2017 sees a changed political geography with 3 new regions

GE2017 sees a changed political geography with 3 new regions

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CON psephologist, Lord (Robert) Hayward on how things are developing One of the striking aspects of this year’s election is the different constituencies over which this campaign is being fought. 1997 was the last time there was such a new geography as Labour made massive incursions into Tory territory. I am not suggesting that there will be a similar landslide, just that for 20 years the battle has, essentially, been in London, the Midlands and the North West. Individual battles…

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Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defences in seats where UKIP did well

Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defences in seats where UKIP did well

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Fairstead on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 50, Labour 10, Independents 2 (Conservative majority of 38) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 753, 727 (39%) United Kingdom Independence Party 599 (31%) Conservatives 593, 469 (31%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,587 (34%) LEAVE 56,493 (66%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Rob Colwell (Liberal Democrat), Gary Howman (Labour), Ronald Mortimer…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, General Election forecasting & public opinion on a Tory landslide

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, General Election forecasting & public opinion on a Tory landslide

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Steve Fisher joins the discussion On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Steve Fisher from Oxford University. Steve runs the elections website https://electionsetc.com/ and is part of the team that produces the General Election exit poll. Keiran and Steve discuss the fallout from last week’s local elections. Steve explains how his election forecast did and what the results tell us about the potential outcome of the General Election in June. Keiran and Steve also discuss how the opinion polls…

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Labour’s Brexit dilemma: the right policy led by the wrong people? Plus Kasich 2020 rumours

Labour’s Brexit dilemma: the right policy led by the wrong people? Plus Kasich 2020 rumours

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Despite Labour voters support for a second referendum on EU membership, the party’s support for Brexit is probably the right policy writes Keiran Pedley. The Conservatives are vulnerable if Theresa May cannot negotiate a deal but not if Labour looks ‘pro-Brussels’. As June the 8th rapidly approaches, many have criticised the Labour Party’s approach to Brexit. With the Prime Minister solidly in favour of a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ and the Liberal Democrats the unapologetic party of Remain, Labour has seemed…

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