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Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defences in seats where UKIP did well

Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defences in seats where UKIP did well

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Fairstead on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 50, Labour 10, Independents 2 (Conservative majority of 38) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 753, 727 (39%) United Kingdom Independence Party 599 (31%) Conservatives 593, 469 (31%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,587 (34%) LEAVE 56,493 (66%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Rob Colwell (Liberal Democrat), Gary Howman (Labour), Ronald Mortimer…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, General Election forecasting & public opinion on a Tory landslide

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, General Election forecasting & public opinion on a Tory landslide

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Steve Fisher joins the discussion On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Steve Fisher from Oxford University. Steve runs the elections website https://electionsetc.com/ and is part of the team that produces the General Election exit poll. Keiran and Steve discuss the fallout from last week’s local elections. Steve explains how his election forecast did and what the results tell us about the potential outcome of the General Election in June. Keiran and Steve also discuss how the opinion polls…

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Labour’s Brexit dilemma: the right policy led by the wrong people? Plus Kasich 2020 rumours

Labour’s Brexit dilemma: the right policy led by the wrong people? Plus Kasich 2020 rumours

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Despite Labour voters support for a second referendum on EU membership, the party’s support for Brexit is probably the right policy writes Keiran Pedley. The Conservatives are vulnerable if Theresa May cannot negotiate a deal but not if Labour looks ‘pro-Brussels’. As June the 8th rapidly approaches, many have criticised the Labour Party’s approach to Brexit. With the Prime Minister solidly in favour of a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ and the Liberal Democrats the unapologetic party of Remain, Labour has seemed…

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Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

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Today, as well as the elections to the English counties, Scottish councils, Welsh councils (of which I am currently dozing in order to be bright eyed and bushy tailed at anything up to 4.00am tomorrow morning) and the new Metro Mayor elections (not forgetting Doncaster of course), there are 107 local by-elections up and down the country in those areas which do not have any local elections. Now clearly 107 is way too many for a single preview so here…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows & where is the LD surge?

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows & where is the LD surge?

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Adam Payne of Business Insider UK to discuss the political state of play as the General Election campaign proper kicks off. The panel mull over the latest developments in the campaign, including Theresa May’s comments about EU interference in British democracy and Tim Farron’s recent run-in with a Leave voter on the stump. Topics discussed also include the lack of a Lib Dem surge in the opinion…

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For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how

For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how

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Don Brind explores the options For many years Theresa May’s main claim to fame was her bravery in telling the Tories they’re the Nasty Party. If you doubt that nastiness lives on in Toryland despite the election of the vicar’s daughter look no further than the Defence Secretary Michael Fallon. He is the attack dog whistled up by Lynton Crosby to spread a bit of ugliness. There is no one on the Labour side who specialises in Fallonic thuggery and…

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Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know

Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know

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A new poll shows that UK adults overwhelmingly trust Theresa May rather than Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate Brexit by a margin of 51% to 13%. All else is secondary writes Keiran Pedley. On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast (see below) I spoke to Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia about events in France and the prospect of a Tory landslide in June. As part of the show, I also unveiled some new polling from our Polling Matters /…

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A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

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Harry Hayfield looks forward 7 days So as there are no local by-elections this week, here’s the final part of my estimates for the local elections in Wales and Scotland. Wales As for the estimates for the English counties, I had a look at the by-elections in Wales since the referendum, tallied the changes on 2012 and noted if the council had voted to REMAIN or LEAVE and made the following observation. In REMAIN councils, the change was Lab -6%,…

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