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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: That latest YouGov forecast, pollster wars & TMay’s lost momentum

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: That latest YouGov forecast, pollster wars & TMay’s lost momentum

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On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments. Chris Curtis explains the background to this week’s controversial YouGov model seen in the Times that has suggested we might be facing a hung parliament. Curtis explains what is behind the model, its limitations and how we should read it. Later in the show, the panel discuss why…

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It’s the economy, stupid. And Team Corbyn aren’t stupid.

It’s the economy, stupid. And Team Corbyn aren’t stupid.

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Don Brind on final phase of the LAB campaign It may all end in tears but for now the diverse team of Corbyn fans and old media sweats who make the Leader of the Opposition comms team can pride themselves on helping the party and their leader to narrow the yawning gap in the polls since Theresa May called the snap election the best part of a month ago. Because they are smart I expect them to make a decisive switch to highlight…

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Tonight’s one local by-election

Tonight’s one local by-election

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Shoeburyness on Southend on Sea (Ind defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 25, Labour 11, Independents 10, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Liberal Democrats 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2016): Independent (Assenheim) 728 (29%), Conservative 607 (24%), Independent (Chalk) 527 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 309 (12%), Labour 236 (9%), Green Party 57 (2%), Liberal Democrats 50 (2%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 39,348…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’ and predictions for June

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’ and predictions for June

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour’s recent poll surge is ‘real’ and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close. Later in the show, Keiran…

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A Labour view of the party’s looming electoral disaster

A Labour view of the party’s looming electoral disaster

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Don Brind looks at landslides past I have a soft spot for Lib Dem peer Dick Taverne even though I cut my teeth as a Labour Party press officer trying to end his political career. His letter to the Guardian this week struck a chord. “Mrs May is riding high, apparently heading for a general election triumph, idolised by the tabloids for defying those beastly Europeans who seek to do Britain down. Today’s winners often end up as tomorrow’s losers,”…

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Local By-Election Preview May 18th 2017 (T-21 days until Election 2017)

Local By-Election Preview May 18th 2017 (T-21 days until Election 2017)

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Reeth and Arkengarthdale on Richmondshire (Ind defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 21, Independents 7, Richmondshire Independents 4, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 8) Result of ward at last election (2015): Ind 544 (76%), Green 116 (16%), Lab 56 (8%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 11,945 (43%) LEAVE 15,691 (57%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Ian Scott (Con) Result: Conservative GAIN from Independent, unopposed Enfield Lock on Enfield (Lab…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Discussing today’s GfK / Business Insider survey results

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Discussing today’s GfK / Business Insider survey results

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Adam Bienkov and Adam Payne from Business Insider UK to discuss today’s GfK/Business Insider poll results. The panel discuss the scale of the Conservative lead, what’s happened to the Lib Dems and why Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings are improving (and why it probably won’t matter). They also discuss what’s behind May’s approval rating plus interesting findings from the survey that suggest Tony Blair is less popular than Jeremy Corbyn. The discussion…

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GE2017 sees a changed political geography with 3 new regions

GE2017 sees a changed political geography with 3 new regions

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CON psephologist, Lord (Robert) Hayward on how things are developing One of the striking aspects of this year’s election is the different constituencies over which this campaign is being fought. 1997 was the last time there was such a new geography as Labour made massive incursions into Tory territory. I am not suggesting that there will be a similar landslide, just that for 20 years the battle has, essentially, been in London, the Midlands and the North West. Individual battles…

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