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For the first time since the E.U. referendum it is possible we won’t leave the E.U. after all

For the first time since the E.U. referendum it is possible we won’t leave the E.U. after all

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It might not be the most likely outcome. But the prospect of a Labour government has put Brexit back on the table writes Keiran Pedley. After Thursday’s shock election result we are all waiting for the dust to settle to see where we are. At the time of writing, Theresa May is hoping to cling on as Prime Minister with many sceptical that she will last the week. Her best hope, it seems, is that no consensus candidate emerges to…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

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On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions. Listen here Follow this week’s guests: @keiranpedley @mikesmithsonpb @tseofpb    

A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close

A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close

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The prospect of a landslide’s now being averted I was an eye witness to the last terror attack in London on March 24th. As walked into New Palace Yard at Westminster on that afternoon I heard one of the shots that killed Khalid Masood and saw him and his victim PC Keith Archer laying on the cobbles, before I was ushered indoors by security staff. . The following day in the Commons I was impressed at the way both Theresa…

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NEW Bonus PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing the weekend’s polls

NEW Bonus PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing the weekend’s polls

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On a bonus episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Ben Walker from Britainelects.com to discuss the weekend’s polls as the campaign enters the final week. Ben is part of a team of students that run the Britain Elects twitter account and website that collects polling data and local election results. It’s an invaluable tool now followed by more than 129,000 people on twitter. A real accomplishment and it was a pleasure to have Ben on. Listen to the…

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Local By-Election Review : 2015 – 2017 Parliament

Local By-Election Review : 2015 – 2017 Parliament

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Harry Hayfield on whether they’re a pointer to Thursday There have been 588 local by-elections during this Parliament in which a total of 1,029,887 votes have been cast. These are not virtual votes cast in opinion polls, or online, but physical votes in physical ballot boxes up and down the country. Overall these votes (and seat wins) have split as follows: Con 30%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 16%, UKIP 7%, SNP 6%, Green 5%, Ind 4%, Plaid 0.77%, Others 3%…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: That latest YouGov forecast, pollster wars & TMay’s lost momentum

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: That latest YouGov forecast, pollster wars & TMay’s lost momentum

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On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments. Chris Curtis explains the background to this week’s controversial YouGov model seen in the Times that has suggested we might be facing a hung parliament. Curtis explains what is behind the model, its limitations and how we should read it. Later in the show, the panel discuss why…

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It’s the economy, stupid. And Team Corbyn aren’t stupid.

It’s the economy, stupid. And Team Corbyn aren’t stupid.

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Don Brind on final phase of the LAB campaign It may all end in tears but for now the diverse team of Corbyn fans and old media sweats who make the Leader of the Opposition comms team can pride themselves on helping the party and their leader to narrow the yawning gap in the polls since Theresa May called the snap election the best part of a month ago. Because they are smart I expect them to make a decisive switch to highlight…

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Tonight’s one local by-election

Tonight’s one local by-election

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Shoeburyness on Southend on Sea (Ind defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 25, Labour 11, Independents 10, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Liberal Democrats 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2016): Independent (Assenheim) 728 (29%), Conservative 607 (24%), Independent (Chalk) 527 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 309 (12%), Labour 236 (9%), Green Party 57 (2%), Liberal Democrats 50 (2%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 39,348…

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