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Lessons from Labour’s conference for the Conservatives

Lessons from Labour’s conference for the Conservatives

Leadership Labour have, on balance, had a good conference, which should of course worry Conservatives like myself. Their leadership is now in full ascendancy – indeed many of the Corbynsceptic PLP stayed away. Brexit was largely elided (of which more later), so the actual splits in evidence were merely between different degrees of Corbynism. On reselection, Momentum butted heads with the unions and came off slightly worse, for now. (Watch that space…) And Corbyn himself is now much improved as…

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Richard Nabavi on the US Senate elections

Richard Nabavi on the US Senate elections

On the 6th November, 33 of the 100 seats in the US Senate come up for election. The Democrats currently hold 47 seats and two independents caucus with them, so they need a net gain of two for them to get control1. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the starting position is rather difficult; of the 35 seats up for election, only 9 are Republican-held, and of those 4 are solid and 3 are fairly safe. On the other side, of the…

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The power and politics of pardon

The power and politics of pardon

Under the US constitution, an American president has a virtually untrammelled power to pardon, or commute the sentence of, anyone convicted of a Federal offence (but not offences under State law). It is a power completely personal to the president, who can exercise it for any reason, or for no good reason, and it has been used surprisingly often: 1,927 times by Barack Obama, for example. Although there is a government department, the Office of the Pardon Attorney, through which…

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Local By-Election Summary : August 2018

Local By-Election Summary : August 2018

Conservatives 6,874 votes (33% -6% on last time) winning 7 seats (-1 on last time) Labour 6,203 votes (30% +1% on last time) winning 3 seats (-1 on last time) Liberal Democrats 5,202 votes (25% +12% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 on last time) Independent candidates 1,887 votes (9% +2% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time) Green Party 427 votes (2% -3% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) UKIP 298…

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Labour Post-Corbyn: Is there hope for Labour’s moderates?

Labour Post-Corbyn: Is there hope for Labour’s moderates?

For all the controversy over anti-Semitism and Jeremy Corbyn’s curious selection of international friends, there seems little doubt that Corbyn’s position as Labour leader is secure. Losing a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs by 172 to 40 didn’t dislodge him, and since then his position has been strengthened by the GE2017 campaign. Accusations of anti-Semitism and terrorist sympathies are water off a duck’s back. However, it doesn’t follow that he will remain leader for an extended period. If…

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UKIP might be edging back in the polls but was the biggest vote loser in the July 2018 Local By-Elections

UKIP might be edging back in the polls but was the biggest vote loser in the July 2018 Local By-Elections

July 2018 Local By-Election Summary Conservatives 13,142 votes (37% +3% on last time) winning 11 seats (-1 seat on last time) Labour 11,198 votes (31% +2% on last time) winning 9 seats (-1 seat on last time) Liberal Democrats 5,670 votes (16% +5% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time) Independent Candidates 2,278 votes (6% +3% on last time) winning 2 seats (+2 seats on last time) Green Party 862 votes (2% -5% on last time)…

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Is there life after Brexit?

Is there life after Brexit?

Chou en-Lai is supposed to have said that his assessment of the French Revolution was “It is too early to tell.” Sadly, this appears to have been a misunderstanding, but the agreeably placid sentiment was echoed by Jacob Rees-Mogg this week. Asked if he’d resign if Brexit turned out badly, he said it might take 50 years before the full impact was apparent. Well, that solves the Rees-Mogg resignation issue, but more generally the public seem unlikely to want to…

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The Tory leadership – an alternative view

The Tory leadership – an alternative view

Ian Whittaker on why Esther McVey might be the one to watch David’s piece yesterday was very insightful on the mechanics for how a new Conservative leader could be elected. I wanted to add a few thoughts on what has happened over the past week, and what are the betting implications on the political front. First of all, standing back, the last week has been, objectively, a disaster for Theresa May. That may seem harsh and it puts me odd…

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