Bexhill West on East Sussex (January 10th 2019) Independent 1,761 votes (52% +2% on last time) Conservative 1,071 votes (32% -1% on last time) Liberal Democrat 261 votes (8% +2% on last time) Labour 111 votes (3% -4% on last time) Green Party 107 votes (3% no candidate last time) UKIP 81 votes (2% -2% on last time) Independent HOLD with a majority of 690 (20%) on a swing of 1.5% from Con to Ind St. Mark’s on Rother (January…
The nights may be starting to draw in and people’s minds are starting to turn to the thoughts of Christmas presents, but for the electors in the 22 council wards where there were local by-elections in November, the main discussion point was who to vote for in those local by-elections. And for the first time since July, the UKIP decline seemed to benefit everyone with Con, Lab and Lib Dem all advancing and as a result of that the…
The Mid Term Elections of 2018 are shaping up to be one of the most important elections in recent times, perhaps up there with the 1994 Republican “Contract with America” or the 2010 “schallacking” that the Republicans gave the Democrats. Whatever happens, all the twists and turns will be poured over for years to come, so instead of looking at the issues, I will be focusing on which congressional districts are likely to flip (GAIN) and what impact that will…
I have been wary of writing on Brexit. The vast majority of the visitors to this site are clearly informed – and informedly clear – with respect to their opinions on the matter. However, with Mike’s indulgence, I would like to pose some questions for discussion. The weakness of the British position now has little to do with the Parliamentary arithmetic. Indeed, as Alastair Meeks presciently wrote in July 2017, there can actually be negotiating strength in what he termed…
Harry Hayfield’s 2018 Q3 review For all the talk of Labour advancing and the Conservatives getting stuck in the quagmire that is Brexit, the fact that in the third quarter of 2018 in the local by-elections there’s been such a tiny swing from Con to Lab really does show that the Westminster bubble is just that, a bubble. Perhaps this is why the national polls are showing anything from a Con lead of 6% to a Lab lead of 1%,…
Leadership Labour have, on balance, had a good conference, which should of course worry Conservatives like myself. Their leadership is now in full ascendancy – indeed many of the Corbynsceptic PLP stayed away. Brexit was largely elided (of which more later), so the actual splits in evidence were merely between different degrees of Corbynism. On reselection, Momentum butted heads with the unions and came off slightly worse, for now. (Watch that space…) And Corbyn himself is now much improved as…
On the 6th November, 33 of the 100 seats in the US Senate come up for election. The Democrats currently hold 47 seats and two independents caucus with them, so they need a net gain of two for them to get control1. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the starting position is rather difficult; of the 35 seats up for election, only 9 are Republican-held, and of those 4 are solid and 3 are fairly safe. On the other side, of the…
Under the US constitution, an American president has a virtually untrammelled power to pardon, or commute the sentence of, anyone convicted of a Federal offence (but not offences under State law). It is a power completely personal to the president, who can exercise it for any reason, or for no good reason, and it has been used surprisingly often: 1,927 times by Barack Obama, for example. Although there is a government department, the Office of the Pardon Attorney, through which…