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At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the political arena

At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the political arena

In both senses of the word, confidence lies at the heart of politics. It is certainly the preference of this habitual voyeur of Westminster life. Yet the concept has been distorted beyond recognition by the stresses of Brexit. Brexit positions cut across most parties, and MPs are clearly torn between their loyalties to their party, their electorate, their local members, the nation, the referendum result, and their consciences. But it is hard not to be cynical about how a number…

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Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

Why the US betting support? The 2020 US Presidential Market is gathering steam right now with most of the top-tier Democratic possibles having announced their candidature. Just waiting on Joe Biden who has recently become favourite for the nomination at Ladbrokes. No doubt his price will drop a little further if and when he announces, but the bigger impact on the overall market would be if he says no. Oddly though, the biggest loser with Ladbrokes would be someone who…

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Local By-Election Summary : February 2019

Local By-Election Summary : February 2019

Labour 7,858 votes (30% -4% on last time) winning 3 seats (-2 seats on last time) Liberal Democrats 6,854 votes (26% +10% on last time) winning 2 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 6,267 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 3 seats (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru 831 votes (3% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time) Green Party 691 votes (3% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last…

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January 2019 Local By-Elections

January 2019 Local By-Elections

Bexhill West on East Sussex (January 10th 2019) Independent 1,761 votes (52% +2% on last time) Conservative 1,071 votes (32% -1% on last time) Liberal Democrat 261 votes (8% +2% on last time) Labour 111 votes (3% -4% on last time) Green Party 107 votes (3% no candidate last time) UKIP 81 votes (2% -2% on last time) Independent HOLD with a majority of 690 (20%) on a swing of 1.5% from Con to Ind St. Mark’s on Rother (January…

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Local By-Election Review : November 2018

Local By-Election Review : November 2018

The nights may be starting to draw in and people’s minds are starting to turn to the thoughts of Christmas presents, but for the electors in the 22 council wards where there were local by-elections in November, the main discussion point was who to vote for in those local by-elections.   And for the first time since July, the UKIP decline seemed to benefit everyone with Con, Lab and Lib Dem all advancing and as a result of that the…

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Mid Terms 2018 : Hour by hour, state by state, your timetable for tonight

Mid Terms 2018 : Hour by hour, state by state, your timetable for tonight

The Mid Term Elections of 2018 are shaping up to be one of the most important elections in recent times, perhaps up there with the 1994 Republican “Contract with America” or the 2010 “schallacking” that the Republicans gave the Democrats. Whatever happens, all the twists and turns will be poured over for years to come, so instead of looking at the issues, I will be focusing on which congressional districts are likely to flip (GAIN) and what impact that will…

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Brexit: The three key concessions

Brexit: The three key concessions

I have been wary of writing on Brexit. The vast majority of the visitors to this site are clearly informed – and informedly clear – with respect to their opinions on the matter. However, with Mike’s indulgence, I would like to pose some questions for discussion. The weakness of the British position now has little to do with the Parliamentary arithmetic. Indeed, as Alastair Meeks presciently wrote in July 2017, there can actually be negotiating strength in what he termed…

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With polls showing a sharply contrasting picture let’s look at the trend in real election with real voters

With polls showing a sharply contrasting picture let’s look at the trend in real election with real voters

Harry Hayfield’s 2018 Q3 review For all the talk of Labour advancing and the Conservatives getting stuck in the quagmire that is Brexit, the fact that in the third quarter of 2018 in the local by-elections there’s been such a tiny swing from Con to Lab really does show that the Westminster bubble is just that, a bubble. Perhaps this is why the national polls are showing anything from a Con lead of 6% to a Lab lead of 1%,…

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