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The July local by-elections see the LD surge continuing

The July local by-elections see the LD surge continuing

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(And that’s not just party political boasting either!) Local By-Election Review : July 2019 Votes Cast Liberal Democrats 8,096 votes (38% +18% on last time) winning 8 seats (+5 on last time) Conservatives 6,018 votes (28% -10% on last time) winning 2 seats (-4 on last time) Labour 2,672 votes (12% -9% on last time) winning 1 seat (-2 on last time) Independent candidates 1,622 votes (8% +3% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru…

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Why I’ve resigned from the Conservative Party

Why I’ve resigned from the Conservative Party

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  From longstanding PBer Richard Nabavi After five decades of support for the Conservatives, I have now resigned as a party member. Naturally this hasn’t been an easy decision; it has been a pleasure working with my MP Nus Ghani, and before her Charles Hendry, and helping in a small way in various constituencies to achieve six years of sound Conservative-led government under David Cameron, even if the past two years have been increasingly difficult. I shall miss the opportunities…

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Prime Minister May : Her electoral record

Prime Minister May : Her electoral record

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When Theresa May became Prime Minister she spoke about wanting to make the JAM’s (Just About Managing) feel confident about voting Conservative. As she departs as Prime Minister, let’s see if the electorate have taken that message to heart. Local Government By-Elections: July 2016 – July 2019 During the last three years there have been close to four hundred local by-elections up and down the country, each of those by-elections sees thousands of people walk into polling stations and cast…

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Boris and the illusion of unity

Boris and the illusion of unity

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“To govern is to choose. To appear to be unable to choose is to appear to be unable to govern.” – Nigel Lawson There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away. It was a pitch which won respect and therefore won elections. So how is the party doing with the…

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The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?

The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?

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To win the Conservative leadership – and quite probably the office of Prime Minister – the successful candidate is assumed to need three things. 1) Sufficient support to get into the final two A third of MPs (105) would guarantee this. In practice around 80-90 is likely to be enough, but going into the final two a long way behind, as Andrea Leadsom did (199 – 84) could prove a problem. Ideally a candidate would be able to reach across…

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What does Newport West tell us?

What does Newport West tell us?

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Newport West was the 28th by-election to be held in Wales since the 1950 General Election. Of those 28, twenty have been defended by Labour with only one loss (Carmarthen in 1966) so therefore a Labour hold was pretty much a given. However, that doesn’t mask the fact that Labour should be worried. Labour’s vote fell by 13% on the general election, the fourth biggest drop in the Labour vote share in a Labour defence since 1950 (Caerphilly 1967 -29%,…

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PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-election

PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-election

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Only the second GB by-election of the parliament The Newport West by-election caused by the death of Paul Flynn, who gained the seat in 1987 from the Conservatives, was always going to be held in the shadow of Brexit. Chris Hanratty’s estimates shows that the constituency voted LEAVE by 53% to 47% and the council area voted LEAVE by 56% to 44%, but there is more, much more to Newport than how it voted in the referendum, so let’s take…

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Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections

Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections

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Harry Hayfield’s March 2019 Local By-Election Summary Labour 6,624 votes (32% unchanged on last time) winning 6 seats (unchanged on last time) Conservatives 5,024 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 3,626 votes (17% +4% on last time) winning 2 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,641 votes (8% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time) Independents 1,154 votes (6% -3% on last time) winning 1 seat…

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