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The SNP’s Brexit conundrum

The SNP’s Brexit conundrum

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Drink, says the Porter in the ‘Scottish Play’, is an equivocator with lechery: “it provokes the desire, but it takes away the performance…. it sets him on, and it takes him off; it persuades him, and disheartens him”.  So it may prove with Brexit and Scottish Independence. Nicola Sturgeon loses no opportunity to remind Scots that Brexit is taking them out of the EU ‘against their will’, citing this as justification for holding another independence referendum so soon after the…

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Point of no return

Point of no return

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When Emily Thornberry threw an early hat into what is likely to become a crowded Labour leadership ring she did so with a vow to step down if it ever became clear, from the polls and her colleagues, that she couldn’t win a future election as a sign of her loyalty to the party. This was a fairly obvious shot at Jeremy Corbyn who went into the 2019 GE as the with the worst ratings of any major party leader…

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As the New Year begins Stodge asks “Is Britain Now a One-Party State?”

As the New Year begins Stodge asks “Is Britain Now a One-Party State?”

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After the 1992 General Election, the fourth consecutive Conservative victory, the Times, in its wonderful statistical summary, described the Conservatives as “the natural Party of Government” and Labour as “the natural Party of Opposition”. Despite a poor economic outlook and 13 years of Government, John Major surprised the polls and most pundits by coming home victorious. In the aftermath, there were those who believed somehow the electoral laws had been overcome and the Conservatives could and indeed would never lose…

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General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

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10.00pm GMT December 12th 2019 The Exit Poll This is what will frame the entire election night. If the exit poll says more than 335 Conservative MP’s (Con maj 20+) then every single Conservative will say “It is only an exit poll, but given the accuracy of the past three exit polls, I think it is clear that our core message of “Get Brexit Done” has resonated with the British people and we can now enact the referendum result of…

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A 200/1 Tip for Next Prime Minister

A 200/1 Tip for Next Prime Minister

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The man who took over Hague’s Richmond (Yorks) seat at GE2015 One ever present Political Betting market is that of who will be the next Prime Minister. This will be greatly influenced by the outcome of the General Election, but probably not settled by this election. This is a market that could take many years before it is settled, which provides opportunities for trading bets. The polls currently indicate a healthy Conservative Majority. If that occurs you can rule out…

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Reporting from the front Lyme

Reporting from the front Lyme

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From the PBer who could be an MP in 17 days time As regular readers will know, I am the Conservative candidate for Newcastle-under-Lyme, a seat that has been Labour for a century and has not elected a Conservative since 1880. However I am now facing a majority of just 30, in a seat that voted around 63% to Leave. That’s the official Borough figure – Professor Chris Hanretty has the constituency a touch lower at 61.6% but observers who…

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Election Battlegrounds: Guzzledown

Election Battlegrounds: Guzzledown

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Political Betting doesn’t often discuss exhibitions of 18th century art, but I can highly recommend the Hogarth exhibition currently showing at the commendably eccentric Soane Museum in London. It is a very rare opportunity to see in one place all of Hogarth’s masterly sequences of ‘Modern Moral Subjects’, including A Rake’s Progress, A Harlot’s Progress, and Marriage A-La-Mode. Most topical, though, is The Humours of an Election (1754-1755), depicting a (literally) hard-fought election in the two-member constituency of Guzzledown, Oxfordshire….

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Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament

Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament

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When I started this, I, like most people, believed I would be tallying the local by-elections for October 2019. Now, I find myself publishing the data for every by-election in the 2017 – 2019 Parliament! And, aside from everything happening inside Westminster, what an eventful few years it has been in local by-elections. We’ve had Labour gaining seats from the United Kingdom Independence Party, Local Independents gaining seats from Labour and Conservatives, Greens gaining seats from the Conservatives, Liberal Democrat…

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