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How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

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Since the last election resulted in a substantial Conservative majority, many have said that Labour has a mountain to climb to win the next one.  The implication is that the result this time significantly influences the result next time.  The results in 2024 are influenced by the results in 2019.   But is that true?  In the jargon, do general election results suffer from serial autocorrelation – that bane of second year graduate students in statistical fields?   Serial autocorrelation defined If…

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28 Weeks Later: The Coronavirus Aftermath for the NHS and its Political Implications

28 Weeks Later: The Coronavirus Aftermath for the NHS and its Political Implications

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“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning”  The NHS has come through the first phase substantially intact, but with considerable losses, and a mixed performance at best, as ably outlined by Cyclefree in a previous header. Moving to the next phase is a challenge across all the domains of economics and society, but my thoughts turn to the next phase for the NHS….

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The Index Case. Dealing with Covid-19 inside our care homes

The Index Case. Dealing with Covid-19 inside our care homes

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A longstanding PBer tell his story Regular readers of the comments on this site will know that over the weekend, my father died after contracting coronavirus in his care home. The index case (colloquially, ‘patient zero’, but more accurately, the first documented patient in a disease outbreak within a particular population), was a patient recently discharged directly from hospital, into the care home. In the ten days which marked the period of my father’s infection, I understand that somewhere just…

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David Cowling examines Cobyn’s claim that LAB would have won GE2017 if it hadn’t been for PLP “coup” move the year before

David Cowling examines Cobyn’s claim that LAB would have won GE2017 if it hadn’t been for PLP “coup” move the year before

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The fact that Jeremy Corbyn was elected Labour Leader despite the majority of the party’s MPs voting against him, was certainly a problem throughout his tenure. However, it seems we have a new twist to the saga: Mr Corbyn now appears to believe this was the principal reason why Labour failed to win the 2017 election – a victory that he was otherwise “absolutely confident” that Labour would have won “because it was all absolutely going our way”. What does…

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Guest slot from Stocky: Why it should be made clear that lockdown will not extend past 12 weeks

Guest slot from Stocky: Why it should be made clear that lockdown will not extend past 12 weeks

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An extreme utilitarianism stalks the land My daughter has started learning about philosophy. She is particularly enamoured with a thought experiment known as The Trolley Problem. The Trolley Problem invites us to either let things be with dire consequences or take action by pulling a lever and producing less dire consequences. Most people see this as a no-brainer: take action, pull the lever.    This choice supposedly outs most people as utilitarians; the right thing to do is to maximise utility,…

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Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review (Final Part)

Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review (Final Part)

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This is it. We’re at the point of no return, there’s no going back now. We’re had numerous articles, interviews, political shows, polls and retirements. The only stage left now is the official results! Which candidates are in the driving seat and which are feeling the pressure?, find out below. As per usual, I will covering the final few constituencies in alphabetical order. Mayo (Four Seats)Currently, the constituency of Mayo is represented by two TD’s from Fine Gael and two…

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Peter’s Modest Proposal

Peter’s Modest Proposal

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I dug out the modest proposal title partially because I wanted to declare this article as being officially semi-satirical, but mostly because it’s advocating a form of cannibalism. Politics is a vicious business at the best of times but there’s always room for a little more ruthlessness. So, this is a thought-experiment in some organised political brutality. The Peter Principle, as originally laid out by Dr Laurence J. Peter and Raymond Hull, is the idea that people are always promoted…

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Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review, Part 2

Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review, Part 2

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With the Irish general election taking place a week on Saturday the pressure is mounting on Leo Varadkar & the Fine Gael members. Michael Martin looks more certain to become the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) but it’s not over yet. Can Sinn Fein pull off the almighty, unbelievable upset, find out below!My predictions will be submitted in alphabetical order. Galway East (Three Seats) Galway East looks set to be a very interesting constituency and nobody is safe here, The current TD’s…

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