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The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?

The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?

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To win the Conservative leadership – and quite probably the office of Prime Minister – the successful candidate is assumed to need three things. 1) Sufficient support to get into the final two A third of MPs (105) would guarantee this. In practice around 80-90 is likely to be enough, but going into the final two a long way behind, as Andrea Leadsom did (199 – 84) could prove a problem. Ideally a candidate would be able to reach across…

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What does Newport West tell us?

What does Newport West tell us?

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Newport West was the 28th by-election to be held in Wales since the 1950 General Election. Of those 28, twenty have been defended by Labour with only one loss (Carmarthen in 1966) so therefore a Labour hold was pretty much a given. However, that doesn’t mask the fact that Labour should be worried. Labour’s vote fell by 13% on the general election, the fourth biggest drop in the Labour vote share in a Labour defence since 1950 (Caerphilly 1967 -29%,…

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PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-election

PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-election

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Only the second GB by-election of the parliament The Newport West by-election caused by the death of Paul Flynn, who gained the seat in 1987 from the Conservatives, was always going to be held in the shadow of Brexit. Chris Hanratty’s estimates shows that the constituency voted LEAVE by 53% to 47% and the council area voted LEAVE by 56% to 44%, but there is more, much more to Newport than how it voted in the referendum, so let’s take…

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Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections

Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections

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Harry Hayfield’s March 2019 Local By-Election Summary Labour 6,624 votes (32% unchanged on last time) winning 6 seats (unchanged on last time) Conservatives 5,024 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 3,626 votes (17% +4% on last time) winning 2 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,641 votes (8% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time) Independents 1,154 votes (6% -3% on last time) winning 1 seat…

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At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the political arena

At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the political arena

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In both senses of the word, confidence lies at the heart of politics. It is certainly the preference of this habitual voyeur of Westminster life. Yet the concept has been distorted beyond recognition by the stresses of Brexit. Brexit positions cut across most parties, and MPs are clearly torn between their loyalties to their party, their electorate, their local members, the nation, the referendum result, and their consciences. But it is hard not to be cynical about how a number…

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Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

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Why the US betting support? The 2020 US Presidential Market is gathering steam right now with most of the top-tier Democratic possibles having announced their candidature. Just waiting on Joe Biden who has recently become favourite for the nomination at Ladbrokes. No doubt his price will drop a little further if and when he announces, but the bigger impact on the overall market would be if he says no. Oddly though, the biggest loser with Ladbrokes would be someone who…

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Local By-Election Summary : February 2019

Local By-Election Summary : February 2019

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Labour 7,858 votes (30% -4% on last time) winning 3 seats (-2 seats on last time) Liberal Democrats 6,854 votes (26% +10% on last time) winning 2 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 6,267 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 3 seats (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru 831 votes (3% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time) Green Party 691 votes (3% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last…

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January 2019 Local By-Elections

January 2019 Local By-Elections

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Bexhill West on East Sussex (January 10th 2019) Independent 1,761 votes (52% +2% on last time) Conservative 1,071 votes (32% -1% on last time) Liberal Democrat 261 votes (8% +2% on last time) Labour 111 votes (3% -4% on last time) Green Party 107 votes (3% no candidate last time) UKIP 81 votes (2% -2% on last time) Independent HOLD with a majority of 690 (20%) on a swing of 1.5% from Con to Ind St. Mark’s on Rother (January…

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