Browsed by
Author: Editor

Where are the defectors?

Where are the defectors?

From longstanding PBer & former LAB MP Nick Palmer I’ve been active in politics for over 50 years, and some things stay the same. The traditional themes – the economy, the NHS, relations with Europe. The reductionist media, simplifying every election to a choice of leaders. The conviction that the current moment is exceptional, and nothing will ever be the same again. But one traditional element has been missing in recent years. It used to be quite common for politicians…

Read More Read More

Home truths about Covid-19

Home truths about Covid-19

OK, time to take stock.  Covid-19 cases are rising again.  Where should we go from here?  Plenty of others will use the statistics to construct arguments for preferred courses of action.  I intend instead to focus on some big, simple and mostly unpalatable truths.   The tiered restrictions will likely only slow the growth of the virus   SAGE, our best-informed experts, believe that.  While they’ve hardly given a great account of themselves so far in this crisis, we have no reason…

Read More Read More

Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history.

Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history.

Last Wednesday, I was lucky enough to join Iain Martin of Reaction’s hour-long video chat with historian and Stanford university fellow Niall Ferguson. As ever with Ferguson it was an erudite and illuminating session, ranging across the presidential election, Trump’s four years, the Covid response, Scottish politics and China.  One of his many riffs though struck me hard: is this presidential election about to be 1948 again? Trump is done according to everyone who is anyone in America, reported the…

Read More Read More

Working out Covid-19 and the political classes

Working out Covid-19 and the political classes

Let’s step outside the Westminster bubble.  What is really exercising people just now?  A good way of judging this is to look at what petitions are being put into Parliament.  And indeed, one petition has caught on this week like wildfire, with 358,000 signatures at the time of writing (10am on Saturday), comfortably the petition with the most signatories. No, it’s not Marcus Rashford’s petition.  It’s a politely-worded request to keep gyms open should Covid-19 cases spike.  To set this in context, it has…

Read More Read More

Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

On election day 2016 the 538 forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning. Of course, she did not. Forecasts now given Biden an even bigger advantage, but coverage of the race is haunted by the miss in 2016. It shouldn’t be. We know what went wrong in 2016, and we can see that Biden’s advantage is more resilient to the issue. The Midwest Mistake It is sometimes said that the polls were wrong in 2016, but it wasn’t…

Read More Read More

Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. Scotland: Yes is winning so what happens now?

Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. Scotland: Yes is winning so what happens now?

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh and Emily Gray of Ipsos MORI Scotland to discuss this week’s bombshell Ipsos MORI / STV News poll showing support for Scottish independence at a record 58%. The group discuss what has caused support for independence to increase, the arguments Scots find convincing for independence and for Scotland staying in the Union and what might happen at the Scottish parliamentary elections next year. Listen…

Read More Read More

A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections

A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections

Rachel Ormston of Ipsos MORI Scotland and Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh look at the numbers. The story of Labour’s woes in Scotland is by now a familiar one. Having dominated elections in Scotland from the mid-1960s to the mid-2000s, the notion that they would return only one Scottish MP was once inconceivable. Yet in 2015, that is exactly what happened – a fate that was to befall them again in 2019, when, following a very poor showing…

Read More Read More

The Pressure of the Populist Right

The Pressure of the Populist Right

Oscar Wilde once claimed: “I never travel without my diary. One should always have something sensational to read in the train.”  My thread headers are, I must admit, less riveting than that.  Still, they have their moments.  Three years ago, I wrote about the UKIP leadership contest to replace Paul Nuttall.  The candidates formed a crew that one is compelled to describe as motley.  One candidate sought to mine the asteroids, while another was a survivalist who had once been shocked by a gay…

Read More Read More