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The decline and fall of the GOP

The decline and fall of the GOP

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The story of 2016 was tycoon businessman Trump running against Dem nominee Clinton whose appeal I could personally never work out. Neither could the voters that mattered in the rust belt, so Clinton lost albeit by a small margin.   4 years on and the USA looks very different. In the midst of a global pandemic, Trump and Mitch McConnell have built an unholy infrastructure which threatens the very existence of the USA’s democracy. The courts Trump and Mitch McConnell have…

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Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals

Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals

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In the midst of this pandemic, it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the poor and destitute, who suffer greatly at the present time. Many thousands are in want of common necessaries; hundreds of thousands are in want of common comforts. A few of us, led by Marcus Rashford, are endeavouring to provide the poor with some meat and drink. The government has decided for now to set its face against helping and…

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Where are the defectors?

Where are the defectors?

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From longstanding PBer & former LAB MP Nick Palmer I’ve been active in politics for over 50 years, and some things stay the same. The traditional themes – the economy, the NHS, relations with Europe. The reductionist media, simplifying every election to a choice of leaders. The conviction that the current moment is exceptional, and nothing will ever be the same again. But one traditional element has been missing in recent years. It used to be quite common for politicians…

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Home truths about Covid-19

Home truths about Covid-19

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OK, time to take stock.  Covid-19 cases are rising again.  Where should we go from here?  Plenty of others will use the statistics to construct arguments for preferred courses of action.  I intend instead to focus on some big, simple and mostly unpalatable truths.   The tiered restrictions will likely only slow the growth of the virus   SAGE, our best-informed experts, believe that.  While they’ve hardly given a great account of themselves so far in this crisis, we have no reason…

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Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history.

Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history.

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Last Wednesday, I was lucky enough to join Iain Martin of Reaction’s hour-long video chat with historian and Stanford university fellow Niall Ferguson. As ever with Ferguson it was an erudite and illuminating session, ranging across the presidential election, Trump’s four years, the Covid response, Scottish politics and China.  One of his many riffs though struck me hard: is this presidential election about to be 1948 again? Trump is done according to everyone who is anyone in America, reported the…

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Working out Covid-19 and the political classes

Working out Covid-19 and the political classes

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Let’s step outside the Westminster bubble.  What is really exercising people just now?  A good way of judging this is to look at what petitions are being put into Parliament.  And indeed, one petition has caught on this week like wildfire, with 358,000 signatures at the time of writing (10am on Saturday), comfortably the petition with the most signatories. No, it’s not Marcus Rashford’s petition.  It’s a politely-worded request to keep gyms open should Covid-19 cases spike.  To set this in context, it has…

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Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

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On election day 2016 the 538 forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning. Of course, she did not. Forecasts now given Biden an even bigger advantage, but coverage of the race is haunted by the miss in 2016. It shouldn’t be. We know what went wrong in 2016, and we can see that Biden’s advantage is more resilient to the issue. The Midwest Mistake It is sometimes said that the polls were wrong in 2016, but it wasn’t…

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Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. Scotland: Yes is winning so what happens now?

Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. Scotland: Yes is winning so what happens now?

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh and Emily Gray of Ipsos MORI Scotland to discuss this week’s bombshell Ipsos MORI / STV News poll showing support for Scottish independence at a record 58%. The group discuss what has caused support for independence to increase, the arguments Scots find convincing for independence and for Scotland staying in the Union and what might happen at the Scottish parliamentary elections next year. Listen…

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