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Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-elections

Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-elections

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Analysis from Harry Hayfield Many people have said the reason why Boris Johnson was elected Conservative leader, and Prime Minister, was to stop one thing and one thing alone from happening, and that one was Conservative voters flooding to the Brexit Party and following his consistent statements of “We are leaving on October 31st 2019” local by-elections since his election do seem to indicate that is precisely what has happened. Now, I will admit there have only been eight local…

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Why they just don’t put up a hard border in Ireland

Why they just don’t put up a hard border in Ireland

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From Topping, who served there with the British Army during the Troubles It was sobering listening to Simon Byrne, a bluff Northerner and current chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), this morning on the radio opining on the practicalities of policing a hard border should it be required. He feared a return to a paramilitary style of policing and how, with his 7,000 policemen, it would be impossible to fulfil such a remit. At the height…

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Trump and the inverted yield curve

Trump and the inverted yield curve

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    President Trump would seem to have an advantage over whoever the Democrats select as his 2020 challenger: since the Second World War, nine elected presidents have sought a second term, and seven of them succeeded. The two exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992. In both cases, the US economy was performing badly in the lead-up to the election. US voters seem to be indulgent towards their incumbent presidents, but less so…

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Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

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Graphic – Recent YouGov polling on impeaching Trump Impeachment is a legal procedure, with an indictment delivered by the House and a trial conducted by the Senate. But, assuming that there is a plausible yet arguable case for it, the procedure naturally resolves itself into a political process like any other. To recap, impeachment is defined as the House passing one or more articles of impeachment, by a simple majority vote. The House has 435 voting members, of which 235 are…

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The July local by-elections see the LD surge continuing

The July local by-elections see the LD surge continuing

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(And that’s not just party political boasting either!) Local By-Election Review : July 2019 Votes Cast Liberal Democrats 8,096 votes (38% +18% on last time) winning 8 seats (+5 on last time) Conservatives 6,018 votes (28% -10% on last time) winning 2 seats (-4 on last time) Labour 2,672 votes (12% -9% on last time) winning 1 seat (-2 on last time) Independent candidates 1,622 votes (8% +3% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru…

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Why I’ve resigned from the Conservative Party

Why I’ve resigned from the Conservative Party

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  From longstanding PBer Richard Nabavi After five decades of support for the Conservatives, I have now resigned as a party member. Naturally this hasn’t been an easy decision; it has been a pleasure working with my MP Nus Ghani, and before her Charles Hendry, and helping in a small way in various constituencies to achieve six years of sound Conservative-led government under David Cameron, even if the past two years have been increasingly difficult. I shall miss the opportunities…

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Prime Minister May : Her electoral record

Prime Minister May : Her electoral record

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When Theresa May became Prime Minister she spoke about wanting to make the JAM’s (Just About Managing) feel confident about voting Conservative. As she departs as Prime Minister, let’s see if the electorate have taken that message to heart. Local Government By-Elections: July 2016 – July 2019 During the last three years there have been close to four hundred local by-elections up and down the country, each of those by-elections sees thousands of people walk into polling stations and cast…

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Boris and the illusion of unity

Boris and the illusion of unity

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“To govern is to choose. To appear to be unable to choose is to appear to be unable to govern.” – Nigel Lawson There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away. It was a pitch which won respect and therefore won elections. So how is the party doing with the…

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