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Scots missed. The Parliamentary dynamics of Scottish independence

Scots missed. The Parliamentary dynamics of Scottish independence

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The Big Bang Theory has run more than a few seasons past its peak, but one of its more striking moments was Sheldon’s and Amy’s game Counterfactuals. One player had to build a question on a premise and then other players had to come up with, then defend, their answer. For example: “In a world where rhinoceroses are domesticated pets, who wins the Second World War?”   Such exercises would limber us up for a problem that might well be coming down the…

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Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think

Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think

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Sisyphus was happy, reckoned Albert Camus.  The Boundary Commissioners may have their own view on this: for the third time they are being asked to come up with new proposals.  Their proposals for 2012 and 2018 both came to nothing.  They are now beavering away on their proposals for 2024. Boundary reviews get wonks very excited.  By and large, they should simmer down.  They’re not half as important as is assumed, particularly for Labour and the Conservatives.  Here’s why. Notional…

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Can Labour ever win again?

Can Labour ever win again?

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Labour has lost the last four general elections. It has not won the popular vote in England since 2001; twenty years ago. We can go further: aside from the landslide Blair victories of 1997 and 2001 Labour has not comfortably won 40%+ of the vote since 1970; over fifty years ago. Labour is not in power in Westminster or Scotland. It may shortly lose (or be forced to share) power in Wales. It does not directly control any county councils…

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A Suggestion on Political Reform

A Suggestion on Political Reform

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1) An elected executive based on defined positions such as Education, Health, Police, Immigration etc. where each position is directly elected after: Candidates are winnowed down to three runners. Each has their specific proposals costed by the Civil Service. Each proposal has to have a statement of the improvement it is expected to bring and a tangible way of measuring progress along with expected timescales. Measurement to be done by the Civil Service. The advantage of this approach is that…

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Lest we forget – the sheer scale of the UK COVID toll

Lest we forget – the sheer scale of the UK COVID toll

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For four years, the town of Wootton Bassett bore the sad duty of receiving the repatriated war dead from Afghanistan and Iraq.  It did so with dignified compassion.  For 345 men and women, the town’s people lined the streets reverently.  They comforted the bereaved.  They remembered the soldiers’ service.  The oak of the coffins and the brass of the fittings were polished to a mirror sheen and wrapped with union flags on their final journeys.  When the town’s duty was…

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Best of three. What of a fresh Scottish independence referendum?

Best of three. What of a fresh Scottish independence referendum?

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As Sting once sang, you can’t control an independent heart.  Boris Johnson, however, seems set to try.  In the face of opinion polls showing that the SNP are heading for an overall majority at Holyrood with a mandate for a fresh referendum on Scottish independence, he is giving every impression of a man who intends not to agree to one being held.   Scotland is not yet a colony of Westminster.  If, however, the UK government tries to block the clearly-expressed…

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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

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When YouGov published their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) election model during the 2017 General Election campaign, it’s fair to say that it was met with a great deal of scepticism (though not from Alastair Meeks). Sure, expectations about the size of the Conservative majority had been scaled back, but a hung-parliament? Labour gain Canterbury? No chance… In the end the Tories did a little bit better than the model predicted and Theresa May clung on to power. But the…

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Never! The DUP’s tragic journey from Ian Paisley to King Lear

Never! The DUP’s tragic journey from Ian Paisley to King Lear

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The DUP’s whole raison d’être is to preserve the union.  It has throughout its history set its face against every compromise with nationalists that might lead to further entanglement with the Republic of Ireland (their older supporters will still spit out references to “the Free State”, as if it were the Federation in Blake’s Seven).  Though you wouldn’t know it to listen to them now, they fiercely opposed the Good Friday Agreement. In 2016, they decided to take a holiday…

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