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Best of three. What of a fresh Scottish independence referendum?

Best of three. What of a fresh Scottish independence referendum?

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As Sting once sang, you can’t control an independent heart.  Boris Johnson, however, seems set to try.  In the face of opinion polls showing that the SNP are heading for an overall majority at Holyrood with a mandate for a fresh referendum on Scottish independence, he is giving every impression of a man who intends not to agree to one being held.   Scotland is not yet a colony of Westminster.  If, however, the UK government tries to block the clearly-expressed…

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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

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When YouGov published their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) election model during the 2017 General Election campaign, it’s fair to say that it was met with a great deal of scepticism (though not from Alastair Meeks). Sure, expectations about the size of the Conservative majority had been scaled back, but a hung-parliament? Labour gain Canterbury? No chance… In the end the Tories did a little bit better than the model predicted and Theresa May clung on to power. But the…

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Never! The DUP’s tragic journey from Ian Paisley to King Lear

Never! The DUP’s tragic journey from Ian Paisley to King Lear

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The DUP’s whole raison d’être is to preserve the union.  It has throughout its history set its face against every compromise with nationalists that might lead to further entanglement with the Republic of Ireland (their older supporters will still spit out references to “the Free State”, as if it were the Federation in Blake’s Seven).  Though you wouldn’t know it to listen to them now, they fiercely opposed the Good Friday Agreement. In 2016, they decided to take a holiday…

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Special relationship: the British right’s appeasement of Donald Trump

Special relationship: the British right’s appeasement of Donald Trump

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Barring a much bloodier insurrection than the one mounted two weeks ago, Joe Biden will assume the presidency of the United States on Wednesday.  Where does that leave the UK? Britain has long prided itself on its special relationship with the US, choosing to overlook the fact that the US tells France that is its oldest ally, that it has a strategic partnership with Israel and so on.  For many Leavers, focusing on the Anglosphere was a central rationale for…

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Two things we don’t yet know

Two things we don’t yet know

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Donald Rumsfeld once famously said: “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know”. For that, he won the Plain English Campaign’s Foot In Mouth award…

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YangGangAgain? – Betting on the next Mayor of NYC

YangGangAgain? – Betting on the next Mayor of NYC

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, Sadiq Khan is cruising to victory in the delayed London elections, but it’s all to play for across the pond. Bill de Blasio is term-limited, and Democrats have 5 months to choose his successor (in their primary, the Republicans have little chance in the general). There are 38 candidates who have filed and the frontrunner is the both the wildcard and the only one you may have heard of… Andrew Yang (2/1 at Ladbrokes) may have come 9th in…

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Leave looks like…Has Brexit met Vote Leave’s prospectus?

Leave looks like…Has Brexit met Vote Leave’s prospectus?

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Has Brexit matched your expectations?  Let’s start by considering what your expectations should have been.  Shortly before the referendum in 2016, Vote Leave issued a document called Leave Looks Like… which is the closest thing they had to a manifesto.  Their bullet point commitments were as follows: We end the supremacy of EU law and the European Court. We will be able to kick out those who make our laws. Europe yes, EU no. We have a new UK-EU Treaty based on…

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Jabbing the Unjabbable (or, for the less polite, Pricking the Pricks)

Jabbing the Unjabbable (or, for the less polite, Pricking the Pricks)

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A guest slot by Stocky I saw a friend recently who is an enthusiast of myriad butt-clenching conspiracy theories.  “My intention was to calmly, cleverly and succinctly knock down each piece of nonsense one-by-one and emerge victorious, chest swelled and buttocks relaxed. My plan quickly got caught up in the weeds.” He quickly got into his patter: Covid is no worse than flu; the death figures are deliberately inflated; long-Covid is largely made up; the pandemic is a fiction created by…

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