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Order of succession. The odds against Sir Keir Starmer being next Prime Minister

Order of succession. The odds against Sir Keir Starmer being next Prime Minister

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Labour supporters were euphoric at the weekend with the news of the first opinion poll in over a year showing them in the lead.  Is this a temporary highpoint or the start of a trend? Might Labour be on course to win the next general election? Perhaps. That does not explain the persistently short odds on Sir Keir Starmer becoming the next Prime Minister. At the time of writing, he was last matched on Betfair at 3.9 to be next Prime Minister. Are…

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The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005

The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005

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What were you doing in 2005?  At the time of the 2005 general election I was at a 40th birthday party in Northern Ireland (“I like this place: they take their politics seriously”, a Kenyan friend said, approvingly looking at all the posters).  Tony Blair had just won a third term for Labour with a majority of 66.   In the intervening period, we have had four further general elections and the political landscape has been transformed.  Last year Boris Johnson…

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Rishi Sunak has highest satisfaction ratings for a Chancellor since Healey in 1978

Rishi Sunak has highest satisfaction ratings for a Chancellor since Healey in 1978

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At some stage, surely, things will change for the man now favourite for next PM Rishi Sunak remains popular with the British public according to the September Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. The poll, conducted before the latest announcement of the Job Support Scheme on Thursday, reveals that two-thirds (64%) say they are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as Chancellor, up from 45% in March – one in five (21%) are dissatisfied. This is the best score…

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Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos MORI podcast: The new COVID regulations + Starmer takes to the stage

Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos MORI podcast: The new COVID regulations + Starmer takes to the stage

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On this week’s Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Katy Balls, Deputy Political Editor of The Spectator and Ben Walker, Data Journalist at the New Statesman and founder of the Britain Elects website. The team discuss the fallout from new COVID restrictions announced by the government this week – and what the public think of them as well as reaction to Keir Starmer’s first conference speech as Labour leader and how he polls versus Prime…

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Majority of Brits support the ‘Rule of Six’ but few are ready to be “snitchers”

Majority of Brits support the ‘Rule of Six’ but few are ready to be “snitchers”

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A new survey by Ipsos MORI finds 60% of Britons support that the ‘rule of six’, which makes it illegal for more than 6 people to meet, in order to control the spread of coronavirus. Less than 1 in 5 oppose the new rule (17%). However, despite government requests for people to inform the authorities if they see someone breaking the rule, few believe they are likely to do so. Seven in 10 (70%) say it is unlikely that they…

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Leave it to Cummings

Leave it to Cummings

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And now for something for completely different I tell you, there are days that you can’t please anyone. It all started conventionally enough.  The fresh morning light crept through the gap in the curtains and caressed my face with the tenderness of an unattended car alarm. The Moggster had introduced me to a patriotic drink called Lambrini the previous evening.  I was now flying the Union Flag upside down. As I lay on my bed, sprawled and desolately flapping like a mackerel…

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Polling Analysis: Amongst likely voters Opinium has Starmer with 4% lead over Johnson as best PM

Polling Analysis: Amongst likely voters Opinium has Starmer with 4% lead over Johnson as best PM

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A guest slot from Wulfrun Phil on latest Opinium poll Published responses to supplementary polling questions are not routinely filtered to limit responses only to those likely to vote in a General Election. That can distort interpretations of “Best PM” polling, because only the responses from those who will vote are ultimately relevant.  Helpfully, Opinium provide so much rich detail in their data tables here that we can apply the filtering ourselves. In their latest poll, the full unfiltered sample…

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House effect. The Polish presidential election

House effect. The Polish presidential election

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Not Europe again?  I’m afraid so.  Fortunately, this time it’s for an election: the Polish presidential election.  The health of Poland’s democracy has been in question for some time, with the government going down the Hungarian route of controlling the media, packing the courts and using chicanery to exploit the advantages of government to the hilt. The Polish public have the opportunity, should they so choose, to change this on Sunday.  The second round of the presidential election takes place…

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